BTC On-Chain Analysis: NUPL Supports Continuation of Bull Market

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In Brief
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A look at on-chain indicators for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in order to make sense of the current market movements.



Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has moved above the 0.5 threshold once more, possibly signaling the continuation of the bull run.


NUPL is an indicator that is used to in order to calculate profits and losses. In order to do so, it measures the difference between realized profits and losses.



Values above 0 state that realized profits are higher than realized losses, while the opposite is true for values below 0.

Historically, values above 0.75 have indicates tops, while those below 0.25 have indicated bottoms.

In our previous NUPL analysis, we stated that the indicator usually stays above 0.50 for roughly a year before falling and signaling the beginning of a bear market. More specifically, “Going by previous history, the bull market would be expected to end some time in Oct. 2021.”  

However, it only stayed above 0.5 for six months in the current bull run. The ensuing drop from above 0.5 (green) to below 0.5 (yellow) was a bearish sign that previously had marked the beginning of bear markets.

Interestingly, the NUPL has now moved above 0.5 once more, as evidenced by the color change of the line to green. Therefore, the current readings are similar to those in 2013. On June 2013, NUPL fell below 0.5, potentially marking the beginning of a bear market. However, it pumped shortly afterwards and proceeded to reach a new high 0f 0.838 near the end of the year, which was also combined by a new all-time high in the price of BTC.

If the same were to occur, it would mean that the BTC price would continue increasing for roughly four more months before eventually beginning its bear market.

Chart By Glassnode

The same thing is visible when looking at the entity adjusted NUPL, who has just moved above 0.5, as outlined by analyst @mskvsk.

Source: Twitter


The NUPL for ETH has twice fallen below 0.5, both times indicating the beginning of bear markets (black arrows). 

While it purportedly did so last month, it immediately bounced back upward above 0.5 (green arrows). Therefore, the reading can also been seen as a bounce at support, since the current value is 0.67.  

Therefore, the NUPL reading for ETH does not indicate that the token is in a bear market.

Chart By Glassnode

For BeInCrypto’s latest bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here. 


All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.
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Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona graduate school of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst.

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