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Is Bitcoin Struggling to Remain Bullish? (BTC/USD Price Prediction for 04/10/19)

3 mins
Updated by Valdrin Tahiri
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At BeInCrypto, we offer regular price analyses and predictions of the most popular and relevant cryptoassets. In our April 8 analysis of Bitcoin (BTC), we predicted that the price would decrease to the support line of the channel we have defined below. Our prediction was validated the next day. The price is still trading within the confines of the channel.

On Apr 3, the price of BTC reached a high of $5345. A sharp decrease brought it down to $4778 on Apr 4.
An uptrend has followed. Price broke $5000 again on Apr 5. By Apr 8, highs were near levels reached on Apr 3.
BTC Market Outlook
Bitcoin (BTC) Prices: Apr 2 – Apr 10
Will Bitcoin move above the highs of Apr 3? Let’s find out:

Bitcoin (BTC): Trends and Highlights For April 10

  • BTC/USD has been trading inside an ascending channel since Apr 3.
  • Bitcoin is trading very close to the support line of the channel.
  • Bearish divergence is developing in the RSI and the MACD.
  • There is resistance near $5320 and support near $4800.

Ascending Channel

The price of BTC/USD is analyzed at one-hour intervals from Apr 2 to Apr 10 to determine Bitcoin’s current trading pattern.
On Apr 2, the price made an hourly low of $4653.93. A sharp increase ensued soon after. This was followed by a gradual decrease. The price has made several higher lows during this period. Tracing these lows gives us an ascending support line: BTC Support On Apr 4, Bitcoin made an hourly high of $5074.63. It has been increasing since, making several higher highs. Tracing these highs gives us an ascending resistance line. The resistance and support lines combine to create an ascending channel: BTC Ascending ChannelIt is likely that the price will increase at the rate predicted by the channel until a decisive move occurs. In order to predict the direction of the movement, a look at technical indicators is required.

Technical Indicators

To better assess future price fluctuations, we incorporate technical indicators into the analysis. We begin with the relative strength index and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The relative strength index (RSI) is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move. T
Combining MACD and RSI bullish/bearish divergence with support/resistance essentially predicts price fluctuations. They are shown alongside Bitcoin’s current trading pattern below:
Bitcoin Divergence
On Apr 3, the price made a high of $5345. It reached a similar level on Apr 6. Similarly, the RSI and the MACD made the first high on Apr 3. However, they have proceeded to generate lower values. This is known as bearish divergence and often precedes price decreases. The divergence is occurring in medium-term timeframes, is very significant in value and is occurring in both indicators. Using these indicators, it is likely that the price will eventually break down from the ascending channel. While it is possible that the price will see short-term increases, we believe that a breakdown is inevitable.

Reversal Areas

We now incorporate support and resistance areas to determine the actual possible future price levels.
Support and resistance areas are created when the price revisits the same level several times. They can be used to find likely areas of reversal if a breakdown occurs.
These areas are traced in the graph below:BTC Reversal
The closest support area is found near $4700. This area is below the channel and could only be reached in the event of a breakdown. The closest resistance area is found near $5320. It is below the resistance line of the channel. If the price moves above this area, it could reach the resistance line.

Conclusion and Summary

Based on this analysis, the price of BTC is likely to break down from the channel. While it is possible that it will increase in the short term, we believe it will eventually break down in the longer term. @ArminVanBitcoin seems to think that price could reach $8,500 in the short term: While we do not necessarily believe this price will be reached in the short-term, we do think it could be reached before the end of 2020. Check out our long term Bitcoin Price Predictions by clicking on the green button to learn more: Do you think BTC will keep increasing or breakdown?  Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.
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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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