Bitcoin’s Short-Term Breakout Could Lead to a Bounce

However, the longer-term outlook is still bearish, and BTC is expected to eventually decrease towards the range low.

Short-Term Bitcoin Breakout

The Bitcoin price had been decreasing alongside a descending resistance line since June 24. During this time, it created a minor support area at $9,050. After bouncing on this area yesterday, the price broke out from the resistance line and reached a high of $9,238, but has been decreasing since. Furthermore, the price has yet to validate the resistance line it just broke out from. The customary movement would be a re-test of this line followed by an increase towards the 0.5-0.618 Fib levels of the entire previous decrease between $9,300-$9,400. As long as the price is trading above the aforementioned $9,050 minor support area, BTC is expected to move upwards towards the range highs.

While the short-term pattern is not confirmed, it is possible that BTC is trading inside an ascending wedge with a very steep ascending support line. If the resistance line is confirmed, the price should reach this $9,300 area later tonight or early in the morning tomorrow.

Daily Time-Frame

The daily chart provides a bearish picture. Firstly, there is the $9,300 level, below which BTC did not close since May 24. While it made several closes very near this level in the period between June 11-24, it was ultimately successful in initiating bounces and moving upwards. However, the price reached a close below this level on June 25, and continued moving lower to the point of losing the support of the  50-day moving average (MA). At the time of writing, this same MA was acting as resistance. Therefore, while BTC could bounce upwards, and potentially validate the 20-day MA (orange), it is expected to fall towards the range low around $8,500, where it should find stronger support. To conclude, a short-term bounce is expected for the BTC price, before it ultimately falls towards the range low at $8,500. For our previous analysis, click here.