Today, FTX Exchange launched hashrate futures. It functions much like any other futures marketplace and allows miners to hedge risk.
The futures are priced on an index 0 to 100. According to the announcement, the index is calculated as follows:
1) take each block that is mined during the quarter
2) Take the difficulty for that block
3) Average those difficulties together
4) Divide by 1 trillion
Currently, Bitcoin’s hashrate in May 2020 is 16 on the index. However, based on the first day of trading, speculators are clearly expecting this to rise in Q3 2020.
Currently, Bitcoin’s hashrate for next quarter is trading above 18. It opened on the market with significant gains and is up 6% or so on the daily. It remains to be seen whether this price point will hold, but it has remained steady since the initial run-up.
Although FTX exchange is the first to offer futures for Bitcoin’s hashrate, other exchanges may follow its lead. It has been in the works since at least August of last year, as per a blog post. Other exchanges may soon follow if the experiment is successful.