Bitcoin’s Price Movement and the Wyckoff Distribution

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Highlights

• The Bitcoin price might be following the Wyckoff accumulation.
• It has been decreasing for the past three weeks.
• The price is in the process of completing the C wave of an A-B-C formation.
• The price might be following an ascending support line.

Wyckoff distribution theory states that there is a proportional effect for every cause in the market. Thus, after every accumulation phase, there is a markup, distribution, and, finally, a markdown phase. More specifically, each phase has its distinct characteristics, which are shown in the tweet below by well-known trader @TraderX0X0, who used this distribution to outline a possible move for the Bitcoin price.

https://twitter.com/TraderX0X0/status/1236846835739889664

Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin price movement and see how well it fits with this distribution.

Wyckoff Distribution

In our previous analysis, we outlined the Wyckoff phases in detail, so we will not dwell on the definitions in length here. Below is a brief summary of each phase:

• Phase A began with the “Selling Climax,” which served to outline the support and resistance areas of the range.
• Phase B created the relative low that caused a bounce in order to validate the high.
• Phase C created the higher (Last Point Of Support) or lower (Spring) low, depending on the scenario.
• Phase D is the projected breakout.
• Phase E takes the price into a new territory.

The sheer rapidness of the decrease makes the “Spring” scenario more likely. Since the decrease has occurred at this speed, it would not make sense for the C wave to end at the current level. Rather, a low near the “secondary test” at $6800-$7000 seems more reasonable.

A rough outline of the five sub-waves of the C wave is given below:

Bitcoin Trading Range

The same trader outlined Bitcoin’s trading range in the three-day time-frame — with the resistance and support areas being at $10,000 and $6400, respectively.

https://twitter.com/TraderX0X0/status/1236797268642185216

Looking at important Fib levels, the resistance and support areas seem to be closer to $6700 and $10,200 — the 0.618 and 0.236 Fib levels of the entire upward move, respectively

Additionally, the Bitcoin price seems to be following an ascending support line that is traced from the December 2018 bottom. It coincides with the Fib support level in April, making it a very likely time to reach a bottom.

To conclude, the Bitcoin price is possibly following the Wyckoff accumulation. According to it, the price will reach a bottom near $7000, before beginning an upward trend after April.