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Bitcoin’s Breakout: New Upward Move or Retracement?

2 mins
Updated by Adam James
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In Brief

  • The Bitcoin price broke out from a short-term ascending channel and is trading inside a longer-term one.
  • BTC is facing resistance from the 200-day moving average.
  • The next closest resistance area is found between $8400-$8500.
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On April 29, the Bitcoin (BTC) price broke out from a short-term ascending channel that had been in place for the past five days. The price reached a high of $7966 before decreasing slightly.

Bitcoin’s Breakout

After five unsuccessful attempts at moving above the resistance line, the Bitcoin price finally managed to move above it on its sixth try. The breakout transpired with higher than average volume. Since then, the price has yet to validate the resistance line it just broke out from as support. While the hourly RSI is deep into overbought territory, it has yet to generate any type of bearish divergence — indicating that the upward move might continue.
Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin Chart By Trading View

Long-Term Ascending Channel

The Bitcoin price is also trading inside a longer-term ascending channel, having been doing so since March 20. At the time of writing, the price was trading very close to several resistance levels, them being:
  • The 0.786 Fib level of the previous decrease
  • The 200-day moving average (MA)
  • The resistance line of the channel
Therefore, it is possible that the BTC price reverses at the current level while decreasing towards the support line. On the other hand, the next resistance area is found between $8400-$8500. This is the highest level that BTC can increase while its price movement is still considered a retracement. A breakout above this level would indicate that BTC has begun a new upward move.
Bitcoin Price Movement
Bitcoin Chart By Trading View

Wave Count

The long-term wave count for Bitcoin suggests that this is the fourth wave in a five-wave downward Elliott formation. Therefore, it indicates that the price will soon reach a top and drop towards new lows. This fourth wave is transpiring with an A-B-C formation (green), which has a 3-3-5 wave count (blue). If so, the BTC price is currently in its fifth sub-wave — meaning it is very close to reaching a top. The fifth sub-wave is also transpiring inside a five-wave Elliott formation (yellow), in which the price is likely in the third wave. Therefore, the most likely move would be a retrace towards no lower than $7500 — the top of the first wave — followed by an upward move towards $8500. Bitcoin's Wave CountTo conclude, the Bitcoin price is trading inside a long-term ascending channel and has reached a very significant resistance level. Elliott wave theory suggests that the price is very close to reaching a top. The highest level that BTC can increase without invalidating this wave count is between $8400-$8500. For those interested in BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin analysis, click here.
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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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