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Bitcoin Wave Count Suggests a Bounce Toward Resistance

2 mins
Updated by Kyle Baird
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In Brief

  • Bitcoin is likely in a long-term corrective wave 4.
  • BTC in a medium-term flat correction.
  • The price could could bounce toward the $39,000 resistance.
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The Bitcoin (BTC) price has likely completed a long-term upward move with its all-time high of $42,000, reached on Jan. 8, 2021.

While Bitcoin is likely not yet done correcting, a significant bounce is expected before another drop.

For the previous long-term count article, click here.

Bitcoin Long-Term Count

Bitcoin has been increasing without a significant retracement since reaching a low of $3,850 in March 2020. On Jan. 8, 2021, BTC reached an all-time high price of $42,000, an increase of slightly more than 1,000% measuring from the low.

The most likely scenario is that this entire move was the cycle wave three (shown in red below) of a bullish impulse that began with the December 2018 low. If so, BTC is currently in cycle wave four, which is commonly corrective.

The three most likely targets for the top of this upward move are found at:

  • $27,428 – 0.382 Fib retracement
  • $22,915 – 0.5 Fib retracement
  • $18,402 – 0.618 Fib retracement

Due to the length of time it took for cycle wave three to complete, the correction could take until the beginning of May. This would give a correction roughly a third of the time it took for the upward movement to complete. However, a more accurate target is likely to be uncovered once BTC gets closer to reaching its low.

Nevertheless, what the ratio between these lengths tells us is that it’s likely that BTC has only completed the first portion of its correction.

The wave count is shown in white and will be looked at in more detail in the next section.

BTC Long-Term Count
BTC Chart By TradingView

Short-Term Count

A closer look shows that BTC has completed wave A in a complex, W-X-Y sub-wave structure (shown in orange).

Since A was a three-move down, this is likely a flat correction. Therefore, the B wave is expected to retrace to the 0.85 Fib level at $40,108.

If sub-waves A:C have a 1:1.61 ratio, which is common in a flat corrective structure, the C wave would go to $39,150. Given this, the most likely target for the top is found between $39,150-$40,108.

BTC Medium-Term Wave Count
BTC Chart By TradingView

Cryptocurrency trader @Thetradinghubb outlined a descending triangle for BTC, which shows two potential paths outlined.

If the count transpires as presented above, BTC is likely to break out from the triangle and continue higher.

BTC Breakout
Source: Twitter

Conclusion

It’s likely that Bitcoin is still correcting and will eventually settle to a low around $27,428. A significant bounce toward the range of $39,150-$40,108 is expected prior to one final decrease.

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here!

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Valdrin Tahiri
Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona School of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst. (I do not have a discord and will not contact you first there. Beware of scammers)
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