Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC/USD Reach a New Yearly High?

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On July 2, 2019, the Bitcoin price made a low of $9652. An upward move ensued. After a quick retracement on July 5, the BTC price continued its upward movement.



At the time of writing, it was trading at $12700.



Will it reach a new yearly high? In order to find out the answer to this question, keep reading below.

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For our previous analysis, click here.

Bitcoin Price: Trends and Highlights for July 9

  • BTC/USD is following an ascending support line.
  • The moving averages have rejected a bearish cross.
  • There is bearish divergence developing in the RSI.
  • The Bitcoin price has been following a parabolic curve.

Ascending Support for the BTC Price

Since reaching a low on July 2, BTC has been increasing, following the ascending support line outlined below:

The most recent increases have taken the Bitcoin price above most resistance levels — most notably the $12300 level given by the highs of June 30 and the 0.618 fib level of the downward move.

There is a significant resistance level near $13,000. If the price breaks through, it is likely to reach the highs of nearly $14,000 reached on June 26.

Is that likely? Let’s take a look at technical indicators.

Technical Indicators

The BTC price is analyzed at daily intervals alongside the 10-, 20-day moving averages (MA) and the MACD  in the first graph, the RSI in the second and volume in the third graph.

An analysis of moving averages gives a very positive outlook for the market.

Initially, it seemed as if both the 10- and 20-day MAs and the MACD were preparing to make a bearish cross.

However, yesterday’s increase caused them to reject it. This is usually a bullish sign.

Currently, both MAs are increasing and providing support to the BTC price.

However, during the increase, the volume has been quite low:

As seen in the image above, it pales in comparison to the volume during the increase from $10,000 to $14,000 on June 24 – 30.

Furthermore, it is lower than the volume during the smaller increase on July 2-3.

Also, while not yet confirmed, there has been some significant bearish divergence developing in the RSI.

While the Bitcoin price is very close to reaching the closing prices of $12,800 on June 26, the RSI is not.

While it reached values of 87 on June 26, it is currently at 65.

To conclude, technical indicators give conflicting interpretations.

While the MAs suggest that the price will continue to increase, the RSI suggests that there is a weakness in the market.

Future Movement

Since reaching a low of $3215 on Dec 15, 2018, the BTC price has been increasing.

The increase intensified on April 1, 2019.

Since then, BTC is not following a support line. Rather, it has witnessed a parabolic rise with very small retracements.

On July 6, it bounced on the parabolic curve and is currently continuing its increase.

At the moment, we see two possible paths the BTC price can take:

The first one, which is supported by the movement of the MAs, is that we continue the parabolic increase and reach values close to $20,000 by the end of the month — possibly making a new all-time high

The second one, which is supported by the RSI and volume, is that we are currently in the B wave, which should likely and at $13,000.

Afterward, the price should undergo the final corrective C wave, reaching values close to $8000 before the end of the month, before continuing its upward movement.

The daily price close should act as a confirmation tool about which scenario is more likely.

A daily close above $13,000 would likely mean that the price is not yet ready for a correction, and will continue its increase at the rate predicted by the parabola.

On the other hand, a daily close below $11,500 would likely break the parabola trend and begin a correction.

Finally, it looks as if the Bitcoin price is done consolidating, and will decide on a direction during this week.

Summary

The BTC price has undergone a parabolic rise since the beginning of April.

The moving averages give a positive outlook, while the RSI gives a negative one.

A daily close above $13,000 would likely mean that the bullish action while continue, while a close below $11,500 would likely initiate a correction.

Do you think the Bitcoin price will reach a new yearly high? Let us know in the comments below.


Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile. 

Images are courtesy of Shutterstock, TradingView.

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Valdrin is a cryptocurrency enthusiast and financial trader. After obtaining a masters degree in Financial Markets at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics he began working at the Ministry of Economic Development in his native country of Kosovo. In 2019, he decided to focus full-time on cryptocurrencies and trading.

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