Bitcoin (BTC) is up nearly 4% in the last 24 hours, trading around $111,346, extending the broader market’s recovery. Despite the rebound, the Bitcoin price remains down 3.8% over the past 30 days, showing that the bullish comeback is still in progress.
However, both on-chain metrics and technical signals suggest that Bitcoin might be gearing up for a stronger push if key resistance levels are cleared.
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The Holder Accumulation Ratio (HAR), which measures how many active holders are increasing their positions versus reducing them, shows improving confidence.
Although the ratio trended down since September 13, reaching a low of 52.91% in early October, it has since rebounded to 55.53%, signaling renewed accumulation behavior.
When this ratio stays above 50%, it typically means long-term Bitcoin holders are buying more than selling – a bullish sign.
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The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which tracks whether the market is in profit or loss, also supports this view. After hitting a three-month low of 0.48 on October 17, it has begun to turn upward.
As NUPL is still under 0.50 and near the 3-month low, profit-taking doesn’t look like an immediate hurdle.
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Historically, a similar dip on October 11 preceded a quick rally from $110,810 to $115,321 (a 4% rise) within two days. This setup suggests that Bitcoin could once again be entering an accumulation phase before a breakout.
Combined, these two on-chain signals show that investor confidence and profitability are recovering, even though sentiment remains cautious.
Bitcoin Price Chart Pattern Hints at a Breakout If $114,000+ Gives Way
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading within a falling wedge, a bullish reversal pattern that often precedes upward movement. The structure shows both trendlines converging downward, but with volume steadily declining, confirming the wedge’s validity.
This setup usually ends with a breakout above the upper trendline, supported by increasing volume and renewed buying pressure. At the time of writing, BTC trades near $111,346, having flipped $108,918, a key resistance, into support.
The next major level to watch is $112,242, which aligns with the upper boundary of the wedge. A daily close above $114,928 (zone that has capped previous recovery attempts) would confirm a breakout.
And it would likely open the path toward $117,615 and $121,440, which are 5.6% and 9% above current levels, respectively.
If BTC fails to hold $108,918, however, the short-term bullish bias would weaken, with potential downside targets at $103,545 – the lower boundary of the wedge.
