Bitcoin on the Back of the Envelope: up 63% in April?

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In Brief
  • Extrapolating from historical data, Bitcoin could cost $ 90,000 in April.

  • The beginning of each month in 2021 brought an average increase of 74.3%.

  • Bitcoin's average monthly return for April is 52.4%.

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April has been historically a very good month for Bitcoin.



If the April trend is combined with the emerging monthly pattern of large increases and subsequent regular corrections, it is possible to theoretically estimate the BTC price at the end of April 2021. According to a back-of-the-envelope calculation, it could reach $ 90,000.

Monthly Bitcoin Rises

Since the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin (BTC) has continued its bullish run. Each time, it has broken new all-time highs. However, this rise is not a straight line heading north. After each significant increase, the alpha cryptocurrency recorded a double-digit correction, percentage wise.



It turns out that the rise has a certain pattern that is visible on a monthly basis. This was noticed recently by the well-known on-chain analyst @WClementeIII. In his tweet, he drew a graph of the regular increases in BTC and subsequent corrections.

In his opinion, significant increases begin after the last Friday of each month. This is the option market contract expiry date at the end of each month. He added that in the past quarter, the biggest increase came after the $ 4 billion in options expired at the end of January. As a result, Bitcoin grew 99% in just over 3 weeks.

The last Friday of March was on the 26th, and with it, options totaling around $ 6 billion expired. How did Bitcoin react? The price moved up immediately and generated a bullish engulfing candle (red arrow) with a body of 7.28%. BTC increased from $ 51,200 to $ 55,000. Most recently, when Bitcoin generated such a candle on March 1 (blue arrow), it further grew by a total of 44%.

Source: Tradingview

Bullish April since 2011

Other data that could bring more light on Bitcoin’s potential behavior in the next month relates to its historical rate of return in April. If you consider the entire history of the largest cryptocurrency and go back to 2011, it turns out that the coming month has been a period of significant gains in the past.

A detailed table of monthly returns was recently shared on Twitter by @SavageBTC. He points out that “8 out of 10 April’s have been ‘historically’ bullish for #BTC”.

$ 90,000 in April?

If we average the above two groups of historical data now, we may attempt to extrapolate the previous price action to the upcoming month. Such a procedure is by no means a valuable prediction of Bitcoin’s price. Instead, it can serve as an indication of what is theoretically possible based on historical data.

Referring to the first chart from @WClementeIII, we can see that the rates of return in the first three months of this quarter were respectively: 80%, 99% and 44%. After averaging, we get a hypothetical rate of return in April of 74.3%.

Next, according to the historical table of monthly returns in previous years provided by @SavageBTC, Bitcoin recorded in April (rounded to one), respectively: 346%, 1%, 48%, -1%, -3%, 8%, 28% , 33%, 29% and 35% return. After averaging, we get 52.4%.

Now, averaging these two values: 74.3% and 52.4%, we get a rate of return of 63%.

If we extrapolate this to the current BTC price in the area of ​​$ 55,000 and add 63%, we get the Bitcoin price around $ 90,000 in the second half of April 2021.

Can this math game convince someone to go all-in on BTC at this point? We hope not. Is it just one of many market indications of what is theoretically possible. We believe that it could be so.


All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.
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PhD and an assistant professor at an international university in Lublin, Poland. Spent 10 years studying philosophy of nature and sport science. An author of 4 books and two dozens of scientific articles. Now, he is using his mind for the benefits of the cryptocommunity. Technical analysis enthusiast, Bitcoin warrior, and a strong supporter of the idea of decentralization. Duc in altum!

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