Is Bitcoin Really a Bubble?
The first chart addresses a common critique of Bitcoin – that it is nothing more than a purely speculative bubble, akin to the South Sea Company in the eighteenth century, or the Tulip Mania that occurred in Holland the previous century. The Blocktown Capital data shows that Bitcoin is not that much like the other two spectacular market crashes in that it has gone through multiple rises and falls over the course of 10 years. In the other two examples, there were no such dramatic recoveries that took the price to new all-time highs in a cyclical fashion.After discrediting that already repeatedly discredited narrative that Bitcoin is “just like the tulip bubble”, Todaro then discusses the gains that people would have made by monthly dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin with $1,000 over the course of each of the years since its creation. In 2010, purchases of just over $83 per month of Bitcoin would today be worth $73,000,0000. At the other end of the spectrum, 2018, one of the worst market crashes in Bitcoin’s history, would still have seen investors making a profit of $300 on their $1,000 total year’s investment. Every single other year, including 2019 (so far), would have seen those choosing to dollar cost average into the market turn a profit too. If someone had managed to not miss a single monthly $83.33 purchase over the entire history of Bitcoin, they would now be worth around $76.22 million.Five INSANELY bullish charts for bitcoin. 🚀🚀🚀 $BTC #bitcoin
— James Todaro, MD (@JamesTodaroMD) September 20, 2019
1/ Bitcoin looks nothing like the Tulip Mania or South Sea Company bubbles, which only lasted an illiquid and brief 3 years.
Bitcoin has been growing for 10 years with billions of dollars traded daily. pic.twitter.com/paEOt4fJcu
Record-Breaking ROI
Naturally, with such huge percentage gains over the years, the return-on-investment of Bitcoin as an asset has absolutely dwarfed investments in any of the hottest tech stocks. In fact, even rapidly growing firms like Netflix, Amazon, and Nvidia haven’t been able to outperform the cryptocurrency.Todaro’s fourth chart shows Bitcoin’s market capitalization versus those of other currencies. It is still a very small market, larger than that of the Colombian peso or New Zealand dollar, yet smaller than that of the Czech koruna. To put it into perspective versus some of the largest currencies on the planet, Bitcoin’s less than $180 billion is minuscule in comparison to the likes of the US dollar and Chinese yuan, which are worth $14.5 trillion and $28 trillion respectively. Gold too, which some Bitcoin advocates argue is the asset most like the cryptocurrency in terms of monetary policy, makes Bitcoin look tiny. The current market capitalization of the precious metal is around $7.5 trillion. Todaro summarises:3/ Bitcoin dominates the best performing tech stocks in returns over the past decade, even when giving tech companies a 4 year head start. 🔥🔥🔥
— James Todaro, MD (@JamesTodaroMD) September 20, 2019
Berkshire Hathaway added for fun. pic.twitter.com/eR314kPcFM
“There is tremendous room for bitcoin to grow into a global store of value.”In his fifth “insanely bullish” Bitcoin chart, Todaro states that the leading digital asset has leveled the playing field in terms of which individuals can realize enormous gains by investing in various assets. He states that 10,000%+ returns were only available to accredited (high net worth) investors. Bitcoin, he argues, with its permissionless, open network has changed this, allowing all those with a curious mind the opportunity to realize such an ROI. What do you think about Todaro’s charts? Do you agree that Bitcoin still has a lot of room to grow?
Images are courtesy of Twitter, Shutterstock.
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