According to data collected since 2013, Bitcoin generates most of its annual performance during just 10 days out of the entire year. It seems like its performance in the past few days that this theory still holds up.
Bitcoin is up 26% since Friday — exploding past all expectations yet again. Trading at just $7,500 on Oct. 25, it is currently sitting at the $9,400 price point and itching to go higher. The bullish explosion caught many off-guard, but it’s not entirely unprecedented in Bitcoin’s history.
In April, Fundstrat co-founder Thomas Lee posted a chart on Bitcoin’s movements since 2013. He noted that Bitcoin normally makes its most important moves of the year within the span of just 10 days. When the 10 leading days of gains for Bitcoin are removed from yearly numbers, BTC is actually down 25% annually since 2013.
2/ Reminder that BTC generally generates all of its performance within 10D of any year.
–ex the top 10 days, BTC is down 25% annually since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zoEocEEZvu
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) April 2, 2019
The comparison was first tweeted by CTO of CasaHODL Jameson Lopp (@lopp). “Miss those 10 days [of gains] and the average return is -25%,” he writes while citing Lee’s work.
Of course, reading these tweets might make you feel as though you missed the train. If traders only have 10 days every year to make gains, then it’s quite easy to make the wrong move and be on the sidelines during a major rise. This seems to have happened this time around as well, with many actually expecting Bitcoin to break down further but were proven wrong completely.
However, with bullish momentum building, there is some good news for those that still wish to jump into Bitcoin now. During the 2017 bull market, Bitcoin still rose 232% even with the top-10 days of gains that year being excluded. Given that the halving is shortly coming up in May 2020, there will likely be many more explosive green days in the coming months.
In short, if you feel that you missed the current rise, don’t worry — Bitcoin seems set to go into 2020 strong.
What do you think explains Bitcoin’s double-digit gains in the past few days? Let us know your thoughts below in the comments.
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