According to data from Google Trends, the search frequency for the phrase “Bitcoin” has fallen to a 9-month low. Moreover, the long-term chart suggests that the current bull market has not even broken through the peak of the previous cycle in late 2017.
However, a look at the trend for some altcoins provides a quite different perspective. One of them is the phrase “Cardano”, which has not only surpassed the values of the previous cycle several times, but is also currently rebounding very quickly.
9-month low for “Bitcoin”
Google Trends is a tool that gives access to unfiltered data on searches coming up on the Google search engine. Crypto market analysts sometimes use this tool to diagnose the sentiment of retail market participants and look for trends for phrases correlated with cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
In a recent tweet, market analyst and commentator @BTC_Archive pointed to a chart on Google Trends for the phrase “Bitcoin”. According to him, the Bitcoin search trend has recently hit a 9-month low. Moreover, this is supposed to indicate a complete lack of hype, even with prices reaching the $50,000 level.
In fact, if you look at a long-term chart of searches for the phrase “Bitcoin” for the past 5 years, you get the impression that the greatest interest has just faded away. Currently, the average number of weekly searches reaches around 25 (red line) on the scale provided by Google Trends. It is worth recalling that the peak of this scale is the value 100, which was reached at the end of the previous bull market in December 2017.
A closer look at the chart brings in some interesting conclusions. Firstly, the popularity of searches for “Bitcoin” on Google Trends in this bull market was lower than at the peak of the previous bull market. So fewer people were interested in BTC at prices as high as $64,500 than at times when its value almost reached $20,000.
Secondly, the value of 25 turns out to be important in the long-term trend. We see that it has served as resistance or support several times (orange circles). On the other hand, after its loss in the first months of 2018, a several-year bear market began. In turn, its breakthrough in November-December 2020 can be considered the beginning of an ongoing bull market.
Thirdly, maintaining retail interest above the value of 25, rebounding from this level and rising again, may be a confirmation of the continuation of the current bull market. If that happens, the low values for “Bitcoin” on Google Trends could be a bullish signal, foretelling that the biggest hype is yet to come.
“Cardano” rises after rebound
Despite the sensitive point in which the graph for the phrase “Bitcoin” is currently located, the popularity of some altcoins in Google Trends provides a more bullish perspective.
The best example is the phrase “Cardano”, which recorded a value of 38 (red line) at its 2017-2018 peak. At the time, ADA was a few months after the launch and it quickly recorded a historic all-time high near $1.30. In mid-May this year, just before the crypto market crash, interest in the Cardano project peaked at 100. ADA was priced at $2.47.
Interestingly, the intense drop in searches on Google Trends, which reached 18, did not reflect the relatively small correction in ADA, whose price did not fall below $1.
Today, we are seeing a very rapid return of searches for the phrase “Cardano”, whose chart is rising and reaching a value of 60. Meanwhile, ADA has broken its all-time high and is flirting with the $3 level.
If the rebound in search statistics for the phrase “Bitcoin” is as spectacular as that for “Cardano”, then BTC could continue its retail driven price rise. For the moment, it seems that the upward movement from the sub-$30,000 bottom is mainly triggered by long-term investors and institutions.
Once Google Trends stats shoot up again and retail investors enter the market in large numbers again, we can expect the bull market to continue and break the all-time high for BTC.