Bitcoin Golden Cross Could Indicate the Beginning of an Upward Trend

Charter and investor @davthewave stated that the cross of the aforementioned MAs is giving a bullish outlook in the medium-term.

I think this is quite significant. It shows the 1 year average rising crossing the 2 year moving average, which gives you a bullish looking turnaround in the medium term time frame… https://t.co/6e0iaGZ8eX

— dave the wave (@davthewave) December 4, 2019

What does this cross represent? Has it happened before? Continue reading below if you want to find out.

Previous Bitcoin Golden Crosses

After Bitcoin’s inception, the 50-week MA was above the 100-week one until 2015, when it crossed below. Afterward, the MAs made a bullish cross in May 2016 — the only recorded such cross until the prospective current cross.

May 2016

The first 50- and 100-week MA cross occurred in May 2016. The cross transpired 903 days after the previous high and 490 days after the previous low. When the cross occurred, the Bitcoin price was above both MAs and in an upward trend. Likewise, the MACD was way above 0 and moving upward. This suggested that the price is already in a strong bullish trend. Afterward, the Bitcoin price continued to increase until it reached an all-time high in December 2017.

Current Bitcoin Golden Cross

The current cross is transpiring 721 days after the high and 357 days after the low. Comparing it to the 2016 movement, this one is transpiring at a faster rate. However, the ratios between the low and the high remain similar. The Bitcoin price is currently trading right at the 50- and 100-week MAs and has been in a downtrend since June. It is in the process of falling below both MAs. The downtrend is reflected in the MACD, which has made a bearish cross and is falling below the 0 line. This is the biggest difference between the 2016 movement and the current one.

Conclusion

We can use curved trendlines to limit the scope of Bitcoin’s price movement. During the 2016 movement, the support line was above the MAs, while the Bitcoin price was at the support line. This allowed the price to keep trading above both MAs until it reached an all-time high. In the current movement, the MAs are above the support line, which is currently near $6000. This allows for a drop towards the support line. For the bullish outlook to remain intact, this should preferably be a wick or a short period so the Bitcoin price can move above the MAs and use them as support. A rapid price decrease could cause the cross to be rejected. This idea is also reflected in a tweet by the same trader, who suggests that the Bitcoin price will consolidate near the support line next year. This idea would be invalidated by a breakdown below the support line.

BTC longer term.

Predicting price next year in the buy zone, which sets up nicely for the next parabolic run going forward. Accumulation mode. pic.twitter.com/feO1Lk7kh1

— dave the wave (@davthewave) December 4, 2019

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Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.