This is my plan. -3D candle close below $8.5k: bearish scenario (primary) almost confirmed. -S/R flip of the $10.5k level: bearish scenario almost invalidated, and targets should be $12k and $14k. Consolidation above $14k and it will probably go to the ath.The importance of the $10,400-500 area cannot be overstated. The rallies on October 2019 and February 2020 ended at $10,370 and $10,500, respectively — while yesterday’s high was at $10,380. Also, while there are several possible descending resistance lines drawn from the December 2017 high — the majority of which the price has already broken out — if we use the exact highs of December 2017 and July 2019, respectively, the price has just validated this descending resistance line for the third time. Therefore, until the BTC price decisively clears this resistance, we cannot state that its long-term trend is bullish.
Short-Term BreakdownDuring the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was strongly rejected by the $10,500 area, creating a massive bearish engulfing candlestick in lower time-frames. However, the price is still holding on to the $9400 minor support area, allowing for the possibility of an upwards retracement. In addition, it is worth noting that volume has been higher during yesterday’s breakout than during today’s decrease — suggesting that bulls are still in control. In order for the direction of the long-term trend to be confirmed, the Bitcoin price has to do one of two things:
- Break out above $10,500 and validate it as support, which would make the trend bullish.
- Break down below the long-term ascending support line which is currently at $8900.
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