Despite the fact that the price has been moving upwards since Sept. 8, the bitcoin price has shown considerable weakness. It is possible that the price has begun the final wave down that could take it to $9,700.
Short-Term Weakness
The Bitcoin price has been increasing since reaching a low of $9,825 on Sept. 8. Even though the price has reached a high of $10,545, it has created long upper wicks each time it has moved above $10,400, failing to reach a close above this level and creating a minor resistance area.
SponsoredIn addition, the daily RSI has generated hidden bearish divergence, a sign of weakness. Based on the wick movement, the closest resistance and support levels are found at $10,500 and $10,000.
The shorter-term two-hour chart shows more weakness. The MACD has begun to roll over after generating considerable bearish divergence and has almost crossed into negative territory. In addition, volume has been doing the same and has been considerably higher during bearish candlesticks.
This is a bearish sign, indicating that the price is expected to move downwards.
Wave Counts
In BeInCrypto’s Sept. 11 analysis, we stated that :
SponsoredThe Bitcoin price likely began a bearish impulsive five-wave formation on Sept. 2 and currently is in wave 4, which is transpiring inside a complex corrective structure (W-X-Y, in red below).
The most likely level for the wave to end would be between $10,840-$10,944, which is the 1.61 Fib level of wave W (red) and the 0.5 Fib of the entire decrease (orange).
Currently, Wave Y has already reached and moved above the 1:1 level of wave X at $10,465, reaching a high of $10,580. The level does not have confluence with other fib targets.
Due to the fact that wave 3 and the ensuing correction was extended, we would expect a small wave 5. If the price has already reached a high, a possible target for the upcoming low would be at $9,721, the 0.382 Fib level of waves 1-3.
A closer look at wave Y reveals an A-B-C sub-wave formation. The previously mentioned high of $10,580 creates a 0.61:1 ratio with sub-wave A, making this a possible level for the top to be reached.
Furthermore, the decrease from the high looks impulsive in nature, meaning that it is quite likely that the price has begun a downward move which could take it to $9,721.
To conclude, it is possible that the bounce which began on Sept. 8 has ended and BTC has begun a downward move that could take it towards $9,700.
For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin analysis, click here!
