Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) Bounces at Long-Term Support

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In Brief
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The Bitcoin dominance rate (BTCD) has created a double bottom at the long-term support area of 39.50%.

While it has broken out from a descending resistance line, it has yet to clear a crucial resistance area, which would confirm that the trend is bullish.

Long-term double bottom

BTCD has been decreasing since the beginning of the year. This led to a low of 39.66% on May 19. 

After a slight bounce, the rate dropped to the 39.50% support area once more in the beginning of September. This created a double bottom pattern, which was combined with bullish divergence in both the RSI and MACD. 

In addition to this, the double bottom is considered a bullish pattern. Therefore, an upward movement could follow.

BTCD Double bottom
Chart By TradingView

Cryptocurrency trader @DTCcryptotrades outlined a BTCD chart, stating that the current level does not support high altcoin exposure. This fits with the image outlined above, because of the long-term support area, and the presence of both a bullish pattern and bullish divergence.

BTCD movement
Source: Twitter

Ongoing BTCD breakout

The daily chart shows that BTCD has already broken out from a descending resistance line that had been in place since July 30. 

The breakout is somewhat supported by the RSI and MACD. While both are increasing, the former is still below 50 and the latter is negative. 

There is very strong resistance at 44.5%. The resistance is created by the 0.5 Fib retracement resistance level, the Supertrend line (which is bearish) and a horizontal resistance area. 

Therefore, until it breaks out from this area, the trend cannot be considered bullish.

Resistance line
Chart By TradingView

Wave count

The most likely wave count suggests that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of a bearish impulse (orange).

The most likely target for the downward movement is between 33.89-35.85%. It is found using the length of wave one (orange) and an external retracement on wave four (black). This would lead to a new all-time low.

BTC Wave count
Chart By TradingView

An even shorter-term outlook shows that BTCD is likely in the final sub-wave of the final wave. Therefore, it is expected to reach a bottom soon and initiate a significant upward movement afterwards.

Short-term count
Chart By TradingView

For BeInCrypto’s latest Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.

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Valdrin discovered cryptocurrencies while he was getting his MSc in Financial Markets from the Barcelona graduate school of Economics. Shortly after graduating, he began writing for several different cryptocurrency related websites as a freelancer before eventually taking on the role of BeInCrypto's Senior Analyst.

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