According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin’s (BTC) key indicators suggest that the current bull cycle may not have peaked yet, implying a potential continuation of the market rally. However, this optimistic outlook hinges on the stabilization of broader macroeconomic conditions.
The report also noted that short-term dips remain a possibility. Despite this, the broader trend appears positive, especially if Bitcoin can maintain its price above critical technical levels like $95,000.
Will Bitcoin’s Price Rally Continue?
In its latest report, Bitfinex pointed out that Bitcoin’s performance in April exceeded the average return. In April 2025, BTC posted a monthly gain of 14.08%. This was higher than its historical average of 13% and the median return of 7.3%.
“While April has traditionally been a strong seasonal month for BTC, recent years have seen more muted results, making this yearʼs performance stand out more distinctly,” the report read.
Notably, the beginning of the month was challenging for Bitcoin. President Trump’s tariff announcements triggered a sharp downturn in the price, which dropped as low as $74,501.
However, amid dollar depreciation and inflation concerns, Bitcoin found new ground. By the second half of the month, the price rallied again and recovered 32% from its previously low to local highs of $97,900.
This strong close underscored its resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty and reflected renewed investor optimism in its future potential. On-chain data further reinforced this.
The stability in miner reserves, for instance, signaled confidence in the market. The reserves increased slightly from 1,808,315 BTC in December 2024 to 1,808,674 BTC as of May 5.
This indicated a deliberate holding strategy by miners who typically sell to cover operational costs. The behavior suggested they expect future price appreciation.
Furthermore, the Puell Multiple, an indicator measuring miner revenue relative to historical averages, remains below 2. This implied that miners do not believe the current price is a market peak.
Miners typically sell during market rallies or extremes, but their continued holding despite recent gains supports the idea that Bitcoin may have more room to grow.
“The fact that they are still holding into this recent 32 percent recovery from the April lows supports the idea that, despite recent volatility and macro uncertainty, we may not have seen the final leg of the current bull cycle,” the report stated.
While the long-term outlook remains bullish, Bitfinex underlined a critical short-term challenge for Bitcoin: reclaiming the $95,000 level.
“The $95,000 level—currently under consolidation—is a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025,” Bitfinex noted.
According to their analysis, flipping the $95,000 level into strong support would indicate a shift in the market towards a bullish trend. Furthermore, it could set the stage for a potential test of its all-time high prices.
However, BTC’s failure to hold it could reinstate the level as a resistance for the price. In this case, a short-term decline or correction appears likely.
“As such, the next several days will likely determine whether the recent strength evolves into a sustained breakout or resolves into a retest of lower support zones,” the report added.
Bitfinex also evaluated the strength of the current Bitcoin rally using the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis. It represents the average acquisition price of coins held by recent investors. According to them, this has
“Historically acted as a dividing line between bullish and bearish market phases.”
This cost basis is currently at $93,340. Bitcoin has successfully broken above this threshold, signaling short-term momentum. However, maintaining this level will be crucial in determining if the rally continues or loses momentum.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded at 94,236 at press time, down 0.1% over the past day. It remains 13.4% below its record high. Whether the coin will fill this gap remains to be seen.
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