According to the results of a survey released today, 47% of respondents believe that Bitcoin (BTC) will not reach a new ATH until 2025. This result reflects the extremely pessimistic sentiment of cryptocurrency market participants, which is further confirmed by data from Google Trends.
The survey was conducted on the profile of well-known cryptocurrency market analyst @TechDev_52. His Twitter account is followed by more than 400,000 people. A statistically valid sample of 7991 respondents took part in the survey. Therefore, its results can be considered to reflect the broad sentiment of crypto investors.
To the question “When will #Bitcoin make a new ATH?” there were 3 possible answers: 2023, 2025, and never. “2025” turned out to be the most frequently chosen answer, as it was indicated by as many as 47% of respondents. In second place was the answer “2023” with 38% of the votes. The last place was “never” with 15% of the votes.
The survey creator commented that the “majority doesn’t expect new highs until at least 2025.” He then added that the “majority also expected 100k+ in 2021.” Furthermore, in a comment under the tweet, he noted that the last response, that BTC will never reach a new ATH, received the highest number of responses he had ever seen.
“Bitcoin ATH” is dying in Google Trends
The extremely pessimistic sentiment of cryptocurrency market participants expressed in a Twitter poll is confirmed by data from Google Trends. Looking at the number of searches for the phrase “Bitcoin ATH” over the past 5 years, we note that its searches are close to an absolute bottom.
The phrase “Bitcoin ATH” in the week of August 14-20, 2022 recorded a value of 1 on a 100-degree scale. The peak of searches for this phrase at 100 was during the week of October 17-23, 2021, when Bitcoin surpassed the ATH of $64,850 from April 2021. A month later, on November 10, BTC reached $69,000 and began a decline that continues to this day.
An additional argument for negative sentiment and declining interest in the cryptocurrency sector is the search results for the phrase “crypto ATH.” The results of the recent period reflect the condition of the crypto market in an even better way than the phrase “Bitcoin ATH”.
In the chart of the last 5 years, we can see that something like a double top was formed in 2021, followed by a gradual decline in interest. This double top occurred first on the week of May 2-8, 2021 (value 95), and then on the week of October 17-23, 2021 (value 100).
Interestingly, the subsequent decline in searches for the phrase “crypto ATH” was much milder than for the phrase “Bitcoin ATH.” However, the end of this decline, which we have just seen in the previous week, leads to the first reading of 0 since November 2020. In other words, almost no one is interested in the phrase “crypto ATH” today.
Interpretation of the data
It is not easy to clearly interpret the data, which unequivocally indicates the negative sentiment of the crypto sector. Cryptocurrency market participants do not believe that Bitcoin can reach new peaks in the short to medium term. Moreover, no one is searching for data on the possibility of reaching a new ATH.
On the one hand, this may indicate an extreme loss of faith in a positive scenario for the near future. Without this faith, the market – like a self-fulfilling prophecy – will continue to fall.
On the other hand, both sets of data presented above may be a positive sign of an impending or already reached the bottom. This is suggested by @TechDev_52 himself, who humbly admits that in 2021 he was among the majority who expected BTC above $100k. Today, with the majority not believing in a new ATH by 2025, the market may again want to prove the majority is always wrong.
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