Bitcoin (BTC) reached a new all-time high of $67,000 on Oct 21 before decreasing slightly. It is likely approaching a short-term local top.
BTC has been moving upwards at an accelerated rate since breaking out from the $57,200 resistance area on Oct 14. Six days later, it proceeded to reach a new all-time high price, going all the way to $67,000 before decreasing.
However, it’s currently in the process of creating a bearish engulfing candlestick. It would do so with a daily close below $64,280. This would mean that the entire upward move from yesterday would be negated by the decrease from today. Nevertheless, there are more than 17 hours until the daily close, therefore there is sufficient time for this to reverse.
Technical indicators are still bullish but are showing signs of weakness.
Firstly, the MACD is in the process of generating a lower momentum bar (red icon). The MACD is created by short and long-term moving averages (MA). At the moment it’s positive and increasing, meaning that the short-term trend is moving faster than the long-term one. The momentum bar is a sign that this trend could be in the initial phases of a reversal.
The RSI, which is also a momentum indicator, could fall below 70 (green icon). This would be a sign of decreasing momentum, but there is still ample time for it to reverse.
Finally, the Supertrend is bullish and is currently at $57,200 (green circle). The indicator uses volatility in order to predict the direction of the trend, and its line often acts as support/resistance.
Therefore, if BTC were to drop, the $57,200 area would be expected to act as support.
Signs of weakness
The six-hour chart is showing signs of weakness since both the MACD and RSI have generated bearish divergences. This means that the increase in price has not been accompanied by an increase in momentum, and often leads to pullback.
Bitcoin wave count
The short-term wave count suggests that BTC is in the fifth and final wave of a bullish impulse. This means that after the upward movement is completed, a correction would be likely.
The most likely target for the top of this rally is found at $70,000. This target is found by projecting the length of waves 1-3 to the bottom of wave four. It would also coincide with the resistance line of the short-term ascending parallel channel.
If BTC fails to reach this target, the correction would be confirmed by a breakdown below the support trendline that connects waves two and four.
The long-term wave count is bullish and predicts that BTC will eventually go above $100,000.
The most likely possibility is that BTC is in a large 1-2/1-2 wave formation. This means that the increase is expected to accelerate greatly after the current correction is finished.
There is a confluence of support levels between $52,150-$53,300 created by the 0.5 Fib retracement support level of the most recent upward move (orange) and the 0.382 Fib retracement of the longer-term upward move (white).
However, this is conditional on where the top is reached.
For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here.
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