Bitcoin btc
$ usd
Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) Bears Regain Upper Hand as Bullish Structure Falters

2 mins
Updated by Geraint Price

In Brief

  • Bitcoin (BTC) broke down from an ascending support line.
  • It deviated above the $23,800 resistance area.
  • The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) stumbles near resistance.
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The Bitcoin (BTC) price broke down from an ascending support line that had been in place since the beginning of the year. This bearish development could be the beginning of a significant decrease for Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin price history since the $25,250 yearly high on Feb. 25 is bearish. There are three main reasons for this: 

Firstly, the BTC price deviated above the $23,800 resistance area (red circle). Such deviations are considered bearish developments, and lead to bearish trend reversals most of the time. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Sends Bearish Signals

Secondly, the deviation was preceded by a significant bearish divergence in the daily RSI (green line). The RSI is now below 50, another bearish sign.

Finally, BTC broke down from an ascending support line, indicating that the upward movement is done. 

If the decrease continues, the closest support is at $20,850, created by the 0.5 Fib retracement support level and a horizontal support area. This is the most likely scenario. 

However, reclaiming the $23,800 resistance would invalidate this bearish BTC outlook. That could lead to highs near $27,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drop
BTC/USDT Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) Stumbles at Resistance

The BTCD broke out from an ascending parallel channel on Jan. 17. It made a high of 44.79% eight days later. However, it was rejected by the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level and has fallen since. Currently, BTCD is barely hanging on to the channel’s resistance line. 

If BTCD bounces and breaks out above the 0.618 Fib resistance, it could increase to 48.50%. However, if it falls back inside the confines of the channel, a drop to the channel’s support line at 41% would be the most likely scenario.

BTCD and the Bitcoin price have a nearly perfect correlation (blue). This means that an increase in one causes an increase in the other and vice-versa. 

Since the most likely BTC price forecast is a drop, this would also fit with a BTCD decrease.

Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) Movement
BTCD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

To conclude, the most likely BTC price outlook is a fall toward the $20,850 confluence of support levels. A close above $23,800 would invalidate this bearish scenario and could lead to an increase toward $27,000.

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In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.