Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.
Grab a coffee to see where Bitcoin may be headed next, ahead of today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s March FOMC meeting minutes, how global trade tensions are rippling through crypto markets, why recession fears are climbing, and what Wall Street and Washington are doing behind the scenes. We’ve also got ETF flows, mining risks, whale behavior, and the chart that’s got everyone talking.
FOMC, Trade Tensions, and Bitcoin: Key Market Levels to Watch
With global markets on edge ahead of today’s 2 p.m. ET release of the FOMC minutes, traders will be closely watching for signs of potential emergency rate cuts in Q2, updates on US trade negotiations, and any signals that could hint at easing financial conditions.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risk is intensifying as the Russia-Ukraine war takes a new turn with reports of captured Chinese POWs, raising fears of a broader conflict.
Amid this backdrop, Bitcoin continues to test critical support levels, and analysts are parsing technical signals to predict what could happen next.
BRN Analyst Darren Chu, speaking exclusively to BeInCrypto US Morning Briefing, shared an in-depth view of the current macro and crypto ecosystem ahead of today’s release of US FOMC meeting minutes from March:
“Risky assets are trying to mount a short covering rebound in the Wednesday Asia afternoon (going into the London open) ahead of today’s highly anticipated FOMC at 2pm EST. Anticipation is growing for an emergency Fed rate cut along with positive developments over US trading partners coming to an agreement with the Trump administration on lifting their tariffs and trade barriers.
US earnings releasing this week meanwhile are playing second fiddle to the global macro, geopolitical backdrop, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict further complicated by yesterday’s revelation that Chinese POWs have been captured (which suggests a potential widening of the war as opposed to a hopes for a ceasefire and peace treaty this year).
Returning to tariffs, China’s countermeasures in response to the US’ escalation have weighed on market sentiment, with expectations growing for a currency war as depreciation pressures weigh on the Yuan, which could lead other Asian regional exporters to following suit in weakening their currencies.”
On Bitcoin’s price action, Chu highlighted critical levels and potential scenarios following the FOMC:
“By shortly after the FOMC, to the relief of bulls or those playing a short-term bounce, BTCUSD should be approaching tentative support around the 38.2% Fib retrace of the massive December 2022 to January 2025 bull market coinciding roughly with the highs of March and June 2024. Regardless of the short covering that may begin in the next day or so, BTCUSD appears to want to slide further to an uptrend support connecting the October 2023, August 2024 and September 2024 lows (on the weekly chart) by May sometime.
A base, conservative scenario by year end is for BTCUSD to test the 50% Fib retrace of the late 2022–early 2025 bull market (coinciding roughly with the peaks of April and November 2021). There is a medium to low probability for now of testing within the same period, the 61.8% Fib at just above the 2024 low of psychologically key 50,000 whole figure level.”
According to Chu, Odds are rising for a short-term dead cat bounce—a brief rebound in a larger downtrend—to start today at 2 pm EST with the FOMC minutes or later this week with CPI, PPI, and sentiment data.
This bounce could align with a Fibonacci retracement, where prices temporarily move up to key levels (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) before continuing the downtrend.
“BTCUSD is now nearing the 61.8% Fib retrace of last August to February’s Bull Market extension, which it could slide to in the day or so following the FOMC.” Chu told BeInCrypto.
Crypto Chart of the Day
Bitcoin Spot ETFs had the biggest daily outflows ($326 million) since March 11.
Byte-Sized Alpha
– Goldman Sachs now sees a 45% chance of a US recession in 2025 but is doubling down on Bitcoin, holding $1.5 billion via ETFs.
– Analyst Ben Sigman says rising trade war tensions could fuel Bitcoin’s growth as investors turn to scarce, inflation-hedging assets outside traditional financial systems.
– As tariffs rattle global markets, crypto whales split—some dumping assets amid panic, others quietly buying in anticipation of a rebound.
– Analysts warn the Fed may be quietly injecting liquidity as RRP balances plunge, raising fears of stealth QE amid rising trade tensions and a $500 billion Bitcoin market hit.
– Bitcoin ETFs faced $326 million in outflows—the largest since March—as institutional investors pulled back, led by BlackRock’s $252 million exit and rising demand for bearish put options.
– Trump’s new tariffs threaten US Bitcoin mining dominance by driving up equipment costs, potentially shrinking America’s 36% share of the global hashrate.
Crypto stocks tumbled as Trump’s 104% China tariffs kicked in, triggering $300 million in liquidations, but rising Bitcoin long positions hint at hopes for a rebound.
– The US DOJ will no longer pursue crypto exchanges and wallets for user actions, sparking debate over reduced oversight and potential risks of enabling illicit activity.
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Disclaimer
In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.
