Over the past month, Avantis (AVNT) has dropped more than 60%, extending its broader downtrend. The token hit an all-time high near $2.66 in September but has since struggled to reach even half that level.
While it has bounced more than 50% this week, the rebound may not be enough. For Avantis to shun month-on-month bearishness, it needs two things — whale support and a clean reclaim of the $1 level. This piece discusses why and how.
SponsoredWhales Remain Absent as Key Money Flow Metric Stays Weak
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures whether large (supposedly whale) money is entering or leaving a coin, still signals weakness.
The last time CMF was above zero was between mid- and late-September, when the Avantis price rallied to its all-time high. Once CMF dropped below zero on September 26, the token started its month-long slide.
Now, CMF continues to show limited inflows. Between October 16 and 23, it made a lower low, signaling that large wallets are still not accumulating. Although CMF has curled up slightly, the move remains weak.
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SponsoredFor the AVNT price to show true strength, CMF needs to cross above the zero line — something it failed to do during its October 20 attempt, which led to another short-lived price bounce.
The Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator, which compares buying and selling pressure by tracking how far prices move from their average, has turned green since October 20.
The green bars have been getting stronger with each session, all thanks to Avantis’ growing DeFi presence. Yet, there lies a catch to this bullishness.
BBP must rise further while CMF turns positive for both small and large investors to be in sync. Until whales join in, the bullish recovery remains speculative. Even the stronger BBP candles might mean partial bull control and not be able to break the month-long bearishness.
Avantis Price Pattern Looks Bullish, but Divergence Suggests Caution
On the 12-hour chart, the Avantis price trades within a falling wedge — a bullish setup where prices form lower highs and lower lows inside narrowing trendlines. This usually shows that sellers are losing control.
But under the surface, a hidden bearish divergence has emerged between October 10 and 21. During this time, prices made lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) — which measures buying and selling momentum — made higher highs.
SponsoredThis pattern often appears during short-term rebounds in a broader downtrend (monthly from the AVNT price). It is a warning that the upside price move could lose steam.
To break out of this structure and invalidate the divergence, the Avantis price must close above $1.00. That would confirm renewed buying pressure and open the way to $1.32. This is a key resistance that once served as strong support during the earlier decline.
Reclaiming $1.32 could even prime the AVNT price for a broader rally toward $2.66, near its previous high.
On the downside, the token needs to hold above $0.57. A drop below that level could expose $0.46, where the wedge’s lower trendline sits. The trendline itself has only two touchpoints, meaning it’s relatively weak — and any break could trigger a rapid correction, especially if CMF stays negative and BBP turns red.
