Analyzing Bitcoin’s 2018 Correction in Order to Predict the Bottom

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In Brief
  • The Bitcoin price has been correcting since June 2019.

  • The current correction shares similarities with that in 2018.

  • A likely level for the price to reach a bottom would be between $2,000-$2,200.

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The Bitcoin price has been in a long-term correction since reaching $13,880 on June 24, 2019. The pattern of the correction shares some similarities with that after the price reached its current all-time high in December 2017.



Cryptocurrency trader and analyst @altcoinSherpa tweeted a scenario in which the BTC price has yet to reach a bottom. Parallels can be drawn between the current BTC movement and that in April 2018, slightly before the price broke down to reach the $3,300 bottom in December of the same year. If so, the price will soon reach a local high before moving to the downside for the majority of 2020.

2018 Bitcoin Fractal Comparison

The comparison of the phases is given in the graph below, in which the time periods with the same color correspond with each other. If the price follows the pattern laid out, it will soon begin to decrease and make a double-bottom near the March 13 low at $3,800. Afterward, it will break down further towards $2,000 beginning in May.

Bitcoin Chart By Trading View

BeInCrypto made a similar prediction in which the price is trading inside a W-X-Y correction. While that gives us a bottom between $2,000 and $2,200, it instead suggests that the low will be reached sometime in July. On the other hand, the comparison with the 2018 movement suggests that the low will be reached in November if the movement takes the same amount of time.

Technical Indicators

When incorporating Fibonacci tools and the RSI into the analysis, the comparison seems less accurate.

In the 2018 movement, the price bounced to the 0.382 Fib level before decreasing and making a double-bottom, which was supplemented with bullish divergence.

In the current movement, the price bounced almost twice as high, reaching the 0.618 Fib level of the previous decrease. However, the second low was much lower than the first, and there was no bullish divergence.

Interestingly, the three-day RSI value is much closer to that of the December 2018 bottom than that of April.

Bitcoin Chart By Trading View

A Possible Low

To find the possible low, we will measure the rate of decrease both from the December 2017 high and the April 2018 low, giving us a decrease of 83% and 50%, respectively.

Interestingly, using this calculation for the current movement takes us to a low of $,2200 — the same value given in our corrections article. However, as stated above, this method suggests that the low will be reached in November.

Bitcoin Chart By Trading View

To conclude, the BTC price is possibly following a corrective pattern from April 2018 but is not supported by similarities in technical indicators or Fib levels. If the price continues following this pattern, it could reach a low of $2,200 in November.

Disclaimer

All the information contained on our website is published in good faith and for general information purposes only. Any action the reader takes upon the information found on our website is strictly at their own risk.
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Valdrin is a cryptocurrency enthusiast and financial trader. After obtaining a masters degree in Financial Markets at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics he began working at the Ministry of Economic Development in his native country of Kosovo. In 2019, he decided to focus full-time on cryptocurrencies and trading.

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