September has historically been Bitcoin’s weakest month. Adding to the concern, analysts point out that rare death cross signals have just appeared across major timeframes.
A death cross occurs when a short-term moving average or indicator falls below a longer-term one. It often signals the start of a bearish trend. While these signals do not guarantee a market downturn, they tend to make traders and investors more cautious.
First Death Cross: MVRV Ratio
The first warning comes from the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which pseudonymous analyst Yonsei_dent explained on CryptoQuant.
MVRV is an on-chain metric that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized value — the average price at which coins last moved. A high ratio indicates potential overvaluation, while a low ratio suggests undervaluation.
In a recent CryptoQuant post, Yonsei_dent noted that MVRV has just formed a death cross. The 30-day moving average fell below the 365-day average.
Historically, such crossovers have preceded corrections. They show that short-term enthusiasm is fading relative to the long-term trend. For instance, MVRV death crosses in 2022 coincided with major pullbacks during the bear market.
“This doesn’t necessarily mean the same outcome is coming — Bitcoin ETFs have introduced more structural stability to the market. But history doesn’t repeat, it rhymes — and the signals from MVRV deserve attention,” Yonsei_dent said.
Second Death Cross: Weekly MACD
The second signal comes from Bitcoin’s weekly MACD indicator.
MACD measures momentum by tracking the difference between exponential moving averages (EMAs). A death cross occurs when the MACD line drops below the signal line. This usually indicates weakening buying pressure and downside risk.
Historically, this signal has been reliable in spotting market tops or extended corrections. Similar events in April 2024 and February 2025 marked 30% declines.
“Death cross on Bitcoin $BTC weekly MACD. Historically, a warning of downside risk!” analyst Ali commented.
Third Death Cross: EMA
The third warning comes from analyst Deezy, focusing on Bitcoin’s exponential moving averages.
He highlighted that the 20-day EMA has just crossed below the 50-day EMA — a classic death cross pattern.
Deezy pointed to the last similar event in February 2025, when Bitcoin dropped another 23%. If history repeats, the adjustment could decrease the price to $86,000.
“The last time this happened in February 2025, BTC fell another 23%. A 23% drop from here would put Bitcoin at $86,000,” Deezy predicted.
Three death cross signals — MVRV, MACD, and EMA — now align in September 2025. Together, they paint a cautious outlook for Bitcoin.
History shows that death crosses often lead to volatility. However, they can also become false alarms during strong bull markets. This time, the stakes are higher as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision in September — a move expected to boost sentiment toward crypto.
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