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Peter Brandt, Arthur Hayes, Ben Cowen: Bitcoin Will Drop After the Halving

2 mins
Updated by Harsh Notariya
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In Brief

  • Analysts predict Bitcoin price drop post-halving, citing market consensus and economic conditions.
  • Arthur Hayes sees late April as risky, expects post-May 1 market boost following Fed meeting.
  • Ben Cowen and Peter Brandt note past patterns, hinting at potential post-halving market correction.
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The Bitcoin halving, a pivotal event looms on the horizon that is poised to redefine market dynamics. Set around April 20, this event will cut the mining reward for a Bitcoin (BTC) block from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.

Analysts like Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Cowen, and Peter Brandt forecast a potential downturn in Bitcoin’s price post-halving.

Will Bitcoin Crash After Halving: Analysts Weigh in

Arthur Hayes, a seasoned voice in the crypto sphere, presents a complex view of the Bitcoin halving. Despite the general optimism, he predicts a market downturn.

“The narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched. When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs. That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving,” Hayes explained.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving Cycles and Investment Strategies: What To Know

Bitcoin Halving Countdown
Bitcoin Halving Countdown. Source: BeInCrypto

Moreover, Hayes highlights the broader economic backdrop. He notes the tighter dollar liquidity and the onset of Quantitative Tightening (QT) by the Federal Reserve, which will reduce the money supply.

Consequently, he expects a “precarious period for risky assets” in late April. Yet, he predicts a market boost post-May 1, following a Federal Reserve meeting, due to an anticipated liquidity injection.

“From now until May 1, I will be in a no-trade zone. I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest,” Hayes remarked.

Benjamin Cowen, another crypto analyst, concurs with the cautious outlook. He draws parallels between the upcoming halving and the 20% market correction following the spot-Bitcoin ETF approvals in January.

“Usually these patterns do not repeat exactly, but just showing it here in case something similar happens once again,” Cowen said.

Veteran analyst Peter Brandt supports Cowen’s view, acknowledging recurrent patterns in Bitcoin’s bull markets.

Read more: Bitcoin Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

This sentiment aligns with Monday’s ETF flow data, which showed a negative trend despite Bitcoin’s price reaching $72,000. For instance, the GBTC saw outflows of $303.3 million, contributing to a total negative ETF flow of $223.8 million. Whereas BlackRock’s IBIT reported just $21.3 million in inflows.

This data might hint at a broader market hesitancy or profit-taking behavior.

Additionally, the halving will likely exert pressure on Bitcoin miners. With the reward halving, miners’ earnings, or hashprice, will likely plummet. Hence, they might resort to selling some of their Bitcoin reserves to meet operational expenses.

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Harsh Notariya
Harsh Notariya excels in delivering SEO-optimized crypto news under tight deadlines. Previously, as a Growth Marketer at Sporty and a Community Consultant at Totality Corp, he significantly boosted community engagement and followers. Harsh also crafted engaging content for top crypto influencer Shivam Chhuneja, blending meme references for an educational yet fun experience. His versatile skills make him a notable figure in crypto journalism.