Analyzing Bitcoin’s Short and Long-Term Elliot Wave Count

Complex Correction

The most likely count is that BTC is completing a complex W-X-Y correction (shown in blue below), currently trading in the Y wave. The Y wave is taking place in a flat A-B-C (orange), currently in the C wave. The three most likely targets for the C wave to end would be at $13,166, $12,922 and $12,615: the 1, 1.27, and 1.61 Fib levels (orange fib) of wave A. Using an external retracement on wave B gives us targets of $12,949 and $12,648 (red fib), coinciding with the latter two targets. Therefore, the two most likely targets would be where there is a confluence of fib levels, between $12,900 – $12,950 and $12,600 – $12,650.

The C wave is an impulse, so the price is likely in wave three of a five-wave formation (shown in black below). The target for the bottom of the move will become clearer once the impulse continues developing.

Bitcoin Triangle

Cryptocurrency trader @CryptoTony_ outlined a possible wave count for BTC, in which the price is completing wave four inside a symmetrical triangle and will soon break out.

The alternative count suggests that the price is trading inside a symmetrical triangle instead. This is valid since a triangle can create a wave 4, currently seen in the BTC chart. If the count is correct, the price will complete the E wave (black) near the ascending support line at $13,400, before eventually breaking out. A fall below the C wave at $13,195 would invalidate the triangle scenario, indicating that the correct count is the complex correction from the previous section. On the other hand, a rally above the D high at $14,083 would suggest that the BTC trend is bullish.

Bitcoin’s Future Move

As for the future movement, it’s likely that the previous correction is a part of a longer-term wave 4 (orange, highlighted), in an impulse that began on Sept 7. After the move is complete, wave five would likely end between $16,100 and $16,1300. These targets are found by using the Fib extensions of waves one and three.

Over the longer-term, the main resistance area seems to be between $16,100 – $17,300, the 0.786 – 0.854 Fib levels of the entire previous decline, beginning from the Dec 2017 all time high. Using Fib extensions from long-term waves 1 and 3 (white) gives targets between $16,800 – $17,100 (white fib), relatively close to the two targets given previously. Therefore, once the current correction is completed, BTC should rally to somewhere between $16,000 – $17,000.

Conclusion

To conclude, the Bitcoin price is likely to complete its correction below $13,000, before beginning an upward move that would take the price above $16,000. For BeInCrypto’s previous Bitcoin analysis, click here! Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of BeInCrypto.