Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas assessed the likelihood of the SEC approving various ETF products. They claimed that a Litecoin ETF is most likely but gave a few unexpected predictions.
Specifically, they believe that Dogecoin is more likely to win approval than Solana or XRP because the SEC will view the meme coin as a commodity. Either way, they expect more clarity and SEC actions soon.
Security Vs Commodity Debate Will Impact XRP ETFs
Since former Chair Gary Gensler left the SEC, there has been a surge of new ETF applications. Several new firms are intensifying their efforts to win some popular ETFs, but there are newcomers.
For example, Bitwise filed one for Dogecoin, attempting to create the first meme coin ETF. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas tried to list ETF approval odds.
Previously, Seyffart and Balchunas predicted that a Litecoin ETF is most likely, and their case was strengthened when the SEC acknowledged a relevant 19b-4 filing. Their decision to rank it at the lead is not surprising. Litecoin is already likely to be considered a commodity due to the network being a Bitcoin fork.
So, Litecoin has regulatory clarity making its odds stronger. More surprisingly, although most of the community considers Solana ETF as a strong contender, the analyst pair ranked Dogecoin higher. Seyffart explained:
“Big implications/expectations in these odds are that: 1. Filings will be acknowledged. Likely this week for XRP & Dogecoin. 2. The SEC & Commissioner Peirce’s Crypto task force will untangle some of the security vs commodity implications from lawsuits by the end of 2025,” Seyffart claimed.
Specifically, Hester Peirce’s new Crypto Task Force is set to classify more cryptoassets as commodities. This would significantly loosen regulatory scrutiny and likely put them under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.
This will help Litecoin and Dogecoin but not Solana. Additionally, Seyffart the SEC still has a legal fight with Ripple, hurting the odds of an XRP ETF. The whole lawsuit is based on whether XRP is a security or a commodity.
So, until it’s officially dropped, XRP ETFs might be less likely.
Still, whatever happens, Seyffart and Balchunas believe that the SEC will start acknowledging more ETF applications soon. Grayscale created a Dogecoin Trust quite recently and just filed for the first-ever Cardano ETF.
The industry is eagerly waiting for new altcoin ETF approvals, and the Commission will need to address this growing concern. Presently, it’s looking bullish.
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