BeInCrypto spoke to one of the most popular analysts, leaders, and influencers of the crypto world – Adrian Zduńczyk. He gained international fame under the nickname CryptoBirb for his analysis on bitcoin price highs.
Many members of the crypto community list CryptoBirb among top market analysts without hesitation. His Twitter profile has over 400,000 followers.
With his strong analysis background, CryptoBirb has placed himself as a central voice on bitcoin. Drawing on his expertise, he discusses bitcoin cycles and the possibility of reaching $100,000 in the coming weeks. He also goes into his work helping people gain financial freedom and even how his grandpa can teach us how to use bitcoin.
“My grandpa used bitcoin”
BeInCrypto (BIC): Please tell us where you are from and what and when attracted you to blockchain technology.
CryptoBirb (CB): When it comes to bitcoin and blockchain, my beginnings date back to 2014. It was more of a passive start. Back then, I was studying chemical technology at the Warsaw University of Technology because I’m from Warsaw, Poland. I had a lot of friends from the IT department, specialists in computers and blockchain, which was a hot topic at the time. Especially after the collapse of Mt. Gox in February 2014.
I remember many conversations at parties with fellow IT professionals saying, “Did you hear what happened with bitcoin? Did you hear that everything collapsed?” Everyone was very passionate about it. At the time, the topic of bitcoin kept coming up. Just to be funny, my grandfather used to use bitcoin for betting. This was earlier, though. I think it was in 2012 or 2013. However, he sold the whole thing at a very early stage and didn’t see its potential.
So the passive part of my inspiration for bitcoin goes back to 2014. But at that time, I didn’t have time to get actively involved because I was studying – I had other responsibilities and priorities.
My active interest in cryptocurrencies began in March/April 2017, when the main alt season was underway. The first swarm of altcoins emerged. The first pumps in the market appeared. People were starting to notice altcoins. I fortuitously entered at about this point through one of my good friends, with whom I had previously had other startup plans.
Eventually, I became involved in crypto. I was in crypto even before I founded the CryptoBirb brand and The Birb Nest. I had the pleasure of actively participating in trading then – not just theoretically in the form of paper trading, etc. Before that, I was also involved in currencies. But cryptocurrencies are a different world – different volatility, different nature of these financial market assets.
The effect was that I started posting my ideas on Twitter and people picked up on it. I got the biggest boost at the end of 2017 when I had probably 10,000 followers. By January 2018, I was already talking about BTC levels of $3,000-4,000, where no one was obviously expecting it.
People dug up those tweets at the end of 2018 at the bottom and said I was some kind of prophet. Of course, I’m no prophet, but I do have some knowledge. I got seriously involved and created something in my opinion really beautiful, which is still evolving and we won’t stop working.
BIC: With this “prophet” thing, I’ll tell you that once a patch sticks to a person, it stays for a long time. By now, not a day goes by without someone on your Twitter feed saying something like: “And this CryptoBirb has the ability to predict BTC movements incredibly accurately.” Even without following your analysis closely, one has to admit that your reputation far precedes you.
CB: Thank you.
The Birb Nest
BIC: Now tell us a bit about The Birb Nest. It is an educational platform for traders. Why is it worth using? What is the edge of your platform? What do you give more? I know that you have your own technical indicator – Birbicator PRO.
CB: Yes, The Birb Nest is an educational platform. We are not an investment fund of any kind. People come to us often scarred by their mistakes, lack of knowledge, and ability to make good decisions. They are victims of their own emotional states that take over and create irrationality when rationality is needed.
We welcome such “battered” people who come to us and seek help. Some of them have lost millions, entire fortunes, are drowning in debt, and are depressed. We fix such people. We give them the best tools. I have a team of 15 people who work 24/7 in full support.
I take great care to ensure that every person on my team is a proactive person – both professionally and personally. Everyone is expected to aim for personal development. Everyone is expected to develop in their profession, but also their hobby.
The result is that we have created a team that is now one of the strongest of its kind in the world. For example, we have certified Ph.D. specialists in trading psychology. We have specialists in mindsets in NLP (neuro-linguistic programming). We have specialists who, like me, are certified, technical analysts.
This December, I will be completing the last of the three levels of CMT (Chartered Market Technician) from an American organization. As far as I know, there is no other person in Poland with this title. Everything seems to indicate that I will manage to get it this year.
However, what is more important is the knowledge behind the title. This is the knowledge that has allowed me to lead this community since 2017.
While the other 98-99% of similar communities either died, made exit scams, got overshadowed by the bear market, or got shafted by hacks. We are still here. We have an average growth rate of about 100% year on year by every metric. For a startup, this is a lot.
“Everyone has the right to financial freedom”
CB: The Birb Nest is growing very fast. Sometimes I wonder if it is growing too fast. The reason for this is increasing demand.
This is because people are recognizing their mistakes and beginning to understand them. Unfortunately, it is usually after the fact, when it is too late to do anything. However, better late than never.
Some people never come out of their state of “denial” and will believe for the rest of their lives that their every mistake was the fault of the government, manipulation, or me. The fact is that everyone is responsible for their money.
Our team gives the best tools, the best knowledge 24/7. This happens both on a personal development level, where everyone leaves as a better person, ready to spread the good. At the same time, he gets the opportunity to break free from the chains of financial slavery that surround him.
The vision and mission of The Birb Nest are based on the belief in a world where every person on earth has the right to financial freedom. Regardless of where someone comes from, everyone has the opportunity to reach out for their own and their family’s well-being.
We do this in spite of the wealth reorganization that is going on in the world, where the top 1% of the richest people decide over 50% of all the wealth in the world.
BIC: I think the protest against this establishment is the bottom line of the entire cryptocurrency movement, not to mention bitcoin itself. It’s cool that you’re continuing this good movement. The name Nest (nest) itself perfectly captures what you are talking about: you care about these “broken,” poor people. They could be rich in another reality if they followed the principles you want to teach.
A great initiative! At the same time, I congratulate you on your long-term outlook. However, it is one thing to have an idea and to initiate it for a month, two, or even six months, but it is much more difficult to survive the bear market and to move forward with unfailing motivation and energy.
BIC: You emphasize the importance of personal development and taking care of your hobbies. You even require your people to take care of their hobbies. At the same time, I noticed that on your profile, there are many tweets of morning jogging, visits to the gym, and other forms of recreation. Tell us, is this also your lifestyle?
CB: As a trader, investor, entrepreneur, and in many other roles I have in my life, I have been searching for my work-life balance for a very long time. It has always been by far my weakest point – I have a workaholic nature. This lack of balance is not okay. That’s why I’ve been trying to change it for many years.
Finally, this year came help from running. I generally hate running. I was looking for a way to create my work-life balance build a routine, which is the complete opposite of the crypto world. Crypto is everything that routine is not. That’s why it was hard to build it.
However, help, as it turned out, came from running. I get up around 6-7 o’clock every morning. Sometimes I can have a worse day and sleep until 8 o’clock. I start my day with a run with my dog, Korek. I listen to the Holy Scriptures and the Gospel on headphones. In this way, I have three-in-one experience.
When I get home, I am neither sleepy nor tired. Every other day I go for training: gym or boxing with Kamil Połosak – a great guy, one of the European MMA champions of the younger generation. He helps me with the physical side and boxing training.
So I have intense scheduled workouts with him three times a week. Regardless, there is a daily run. Sunday or Saturday, Dubai or Poland – I run. So far, I have been doing this for 85 days, and it has become a routine. I must admit, I’ve done it! An inconspicuous 15-minute run of 2.5km maximum proved to be the anchor – that was enough.
CryptoBirb: $100,000 bitcoin
BIC: Let’s talk about the market! I wanted to refer to one small tweet that appeared on your profile recently. CryptoBirb claims that bitcoin will reach $100,000 within a few weeks. What brought you to this prediction?
CB: I’ve been known to side with the bulls. Given the fundamental value and the programming of bitcoin in a deflationary function by the halving rhythm, all uptrend disruptions are just deviations.
Bull markets, bear markets are just part of larger waves, as Elliott theory practitioners might suggest. Every wave, every movement, and trend is made up of smaller trends, which results from the fact that they are fractals. This comes down to microscopic units of trend, which all add up to form one overall macro trend.
Given what trend someone finds interesting to trade, there will be a correspondingly large return. For example, if one has to choose a trend that lasts 15 days, it is clear that it will not have the same span as a trend that lasts four years.
Here both theory and practice suggest that most often – as much as 90% of the time – day traders lose money. Such short-term market participants have no idea that, in most cases, it is unsupported and emotionally driven gambling.
Added to this is the lack of rationality and the fact that the market is highly institutionalized. It is full of whales who move the order book up and down as they please.
They know the pitfalls and how people will behave. This is the magic of technical analysis, which makes me quite effective at predicting changes in trend direction over the long term. I cannot say what will happen in five minutes, in an hour, or what will happen tomorrow. There are no certainties, only chances.
However, the more you look at the market from a “zoom-out” perspective, the more you see the complete picture. It may be that what seems bearish on a small interval turns out to be the very bottom of the big picture. Then you have to buy, not sell.
What kind of trader is CryptoBirb?
BIC: So you could say about yourself that you are more of a swing trader or even a macro investor, as opposed to a day trader?
CB: To be precise I am a position trader. I have a few positions which I set myself. For example, I recently opened a position at $40,000 and $30,000. I have a few longs set up at $29,600 on small leverage, but that is more fun. My position trading is based on a few major positions and several months of holding them.
In my opinion, $100,000 is very possible. Given bitcoin’s seasonality, usually strong rises come in November-December. I expect that to be the case this year as well.
BIC: Actually, if we go down to the lower intervals of this fractal and its movements are more like probabilistic Brownian motion, which is completely unpredictable. It’s hard to find any patterns.
CB: It is chaos.
BIC: Exactly! The bigger the “zoom-out,” the more patterns can be picked up. They, too, are inherently probabilistic, but they can be managed.
BIC: Finally, tell us something more about bitcoin’s cycles. Are you a proponent of bitcoin’s halving cycles? Or do you think that as the maturity and amount of capital in the crypto market increases, we will slowly move out of these cycles, which may not necessarily be an axiom?
CB: That is a good question. In my opinion, we are talking about a decades-long perspective, not a few years. The changes you are talking about will not be visible in this cycle, which is already ending, nor in the next cycle. If anything, they will be visible in 20-30 years.
Definitely, crypto is becoming a gigantic part of the market. It is in the top ten markets, with gold in the first place. The more capital is present in the market, the more stable it is, and its volatility is less. On the other hand, this volatility in crypto is due more to the lack of regulation than to the nature of the market itself.
Therefore, I think that as the crypto market continues to be regulated and grow, these cycles will change. All the while, however, bitcoin’s deflationary policy is long-term upward. Probably not forever, but over the next few cycles, it will generate the value of bitcoin very much upwards.