XRP: Losses, Losses, and…More Losses (Price Analysis For XRP: March 12)

Key Highlights For March 12, 2019

• The price of XRP (XRP) has been on a downtrend since Mar 9.
• The price is trading inside a parallel descending channel.
• There is bullish divergence developing in the MACD and the RSI.
• There are resistance areas near $0.345 and $0.33.
• There is support near $0.304.

Descending Resistance

The price of XRP on Binance is analyzed at 30-minute intervals from Mar 9 to Mar 11. The price reached a high of $0.325 on Mar 9. It has made lower highs since. Tracing these highs gives us a descending resistance line.   The days in which the line was touched are Mar 9, Mar 10 (twice), Mar 11 (twice) and Mar 12. The resistance line effectively acts as a floor for the price—theoritically preventing further upward movement. It traces the upper supposed upper limits of price for a given period and projects future trends. Highs above the resistance can be considered insignificant unless they are succeeded by sustained movement above the line. Thus, the highs above the support on Mar 9, 10, and 11 can be considered insignificant. After the highs were reached, price immediately dropped below support. The current downtrend may be a market response to the rapid price increase on Mar 9. It is yet unclear how long the downtrend will last.

Descending Channel

The price reached a low of $0.316 on Mar 9. It has made lower lows since. Tracing these lows gives us a descending support line. The dates on which the line was touched are Mar 9, Mar 10 , Mar 11 (twice), Mar 12. The resistance and support lines create a descending channel. Using this channel better predicts price fluctuations than resistance or support alone. Because the channel is moving downward, price decreases will likely continue into the future. The price decreased at the same rate as predicted by the support line. The creation of a neutral pattern and the lack of volatility may suggest that consolidation and movement inside the channel may be in store for the near future.

Looking Out For a Reversal

Combining moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) bullish/bearish divergence with support/resistance essentially predicts price fluctuations. MACD is a trend indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages (long and short-term) and the price. It is used to measure the strength of a move. RSI is an indicator which calculates the size of the changes in price in order to determine oversold or overbought conditions in the market. On  Mar 10, the price made a low of $0.314. Lower lows followed until Mar 12. Similarly, the  MACD and RSI made an initial low on Mar 10. However, they proceeded to make higher lows during the same period. This is called bullish divergence and often succeeds increases in price. Using these indicators, continued price movement inside the channel appears more likely than a breakout or breakdown. Thus, price decreases are expected to continue for the foreseeable future. A breakout or breakdown, however, remains possible. 

Resistance and Support

The price of XRP on Binance is analyzed at two-hour intervals from Feb 25 to Mar 11 to better visualize future possible resistance and support levels. There are two visible resistance areas, near $0.33 and $0.345 respectively. This means that in the case of a breakout, they would provide likely reversal areas.  The closest support area is found near $0.304. If a breakdown occurs, this is a likely reversal area.

Summary of Analysis

Based on this analysis, the price of XRP is likely to trade inside the channel. Because price is a on a current downward trend, price decreases are expected for the foreseeable future. Breakdowns and breakouts remain possible with a break down appearing more possible. A breakdown might lead to more rapid and significant crashes in price. If price continues along its current downward trend—within the channel—the prediction will be fully validated. A breakdown below support will partially validate the prediction. A breakout—considered the least likely scenario—would invalidate the prediction of continued price decreases. Do you think that XRP will continue moving within this channel or should we expect a surprise breakout? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Disclaimer: This article is not trading advice and should not be construed as such. Always consult a trained financial professional before investing in cryptocurrencies, as the market is particularly volatile.