XRP has failed to break out since its November 2024 rally, raising fresh questions about what’s holding it back. Analyst José Luis Cava believes the answer lies in a single word – control.
In a recent video, Cava argued that one dominant “hand” continues to influence XRP’s market behavior, despite the token’s strong technical foundation. He pointed to a mix of limited supply, centralized token management, and weak institutional demand as key roadblocks.
Ripple’s Grip on XRP Supply
Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, XRP was pre-mined. At launch, 100 billion tokens were created—none will ever be minted again. Ripple Labs initially held 80% of the total supply and, as of mid-2025, still controls around 42%.
Roughly 35% of this is locked in monthly escrow accounts, while 7% remains in Ripple’s wallets.
Each month, Ripple releases up to 1 billion XRP, granting it outsized influence over circulating supply and, by extension, price dynamics.
This degree of control has fueled debate over whether XRP can truly be called a decentralized asset. Market movements no longer reflect organic demand and supply, Cava warned.
“Only one hand can perfectly determine XRP’s price direction—and I don’t like that,” he said. “I’m not speaking as a technical analyst, but as a market participant.”
Institutional Demand Remains Elusive
Despite being designed for fast, low-cost cross-border payments—a clear utility for banks and institutions—XRP hasn’t seen the kind of institutional traction that has benefited Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Adoption remains thin. Market uncertainty around Ripple’s deals with central banks, along with sparse public information about live integrations, has created doubt. This hesitation may be discouraging larger investors.
“Look at XRP’s chart. It jumped in November 2024, then just moved sideways. That’s not a healthy trend,” Cava noted, comparing it to Bitcoin’s clear upward momentum.
Transparency Issues: Private vs Public Ledger
Another concern is XRP’s dual-ledger architecture. The public XRP Ledger handles retail and open transactions.
However, Ripple reportedly also developed a separate, permissioned ledger specifically for central banks exploring CBDCs.
While it uses similar technology to the public XRP Ledger, this private version is not accessible to the public and operates independently.
This private ledger is not publicly auditable. While some speculate about a future merger of the two systems, Ripple has not confirmed such plans. For many investors, this opacity is a red flag.
In crypto markets where transparency and decentralization are essential for trust, XRP’s closed-door architecture stands out.
XRP Price Stuck Until Structure Shifts
Technically, XRP continues to function as designed. But structurally, it faces challenges. High token concentration, lack of widespread demand, and limited network transparency restrict its upside potential.
Unless Ripple decentralizes token distribution and opens up its private operations—or a new wave of adoption emerges—XRP is likely to remain trapped in a sideways trend.
Price momentum, as Cava stressed, won’t return without broader demand and a shift in governance dynamics.
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