Will 2 BTC Be Purchased for Every Bitcoin Mined Before 2020 Halving?

Cryptocurrency analyst Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) made a provocative tweet recently about the rate of Bitcoin (BTC) being purchased on Square’s Cash app.

Bitcoin sales have been hot on Square’s Cash app, which is becoming an attractive means of buying Bitcoin — due to its ease-of-use and low fees.  Elmandjra makes the argument that, if the trend continues, roughly two bitcoins will be purchased on the platform for every one BTC mined — just in time for the next halving in May 2020.

If BTC sales on Square Cash maintain current growth rates, then by the next Bitcoin halving (May 2020), roughly 2 BTC will be purchased on Square Cash for every new BTC that is mined. pic.twitter.com/GPxXhaGK15

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— Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) May 1, 2019

The extrapolation is an optimistic one. Some commentators did not take too kindly to the prediction, calling it bad data analysis as it extrapolates trends in a nonsensical way.

A Bad Argument?

First and foremost, there’s no real reason to assume that the number of bitcoin purchases on Square Cash will continually increase at the same rate it is now. Instead, it is possible we see diminishing increases with each quarter. One reply by Larry Cermak (@lawmaster) joked that if BTC sales on Square Cash maintain current growth rates, then the platform will sell 139 percent of all Bitcoin in circulation. The jab was meant to poke fun at Elmandrja for extrapolating predictive trends with assumptions that they will continue at the same rate.

Adding this to the hall of fame for chart crime 🥇 I mean… come on https://t.co/zXSSF2gHh5

— Larry Cermak (@lawmaster) May 2, 2019

However, there is something to be said about the growing importance of Square Cash. Since adding BTC in Q1 2018, the number of bitcoin purchases on the platform has increased exponentially. However, it’s still far too early to make predictions for May 2020 based on such meager data. Bitcoin purchases on Square Cash still make up only a tiny fraction of all sales. Although there is plenty of room for excitement over Square Cash’s growing BTC sales, Elmandjra’s conclusions might be a little too far-fetched to believe. Do you believe Square Cash can maintain its current growth rate in BTC sales? Let us know your thoughts below.