The United States’ Government has entered its first major federal shutdown in more than six years, raising questions about how the crypto market will respond. Will it mirror the January 2018 shutdown—also following a five-year gap—or will digital assets withstand the uncertainty more smoothly this time?
BeInCrypto analyzed three altcoins that stood out during the early 2018 shutdown and where they could be headed now.
SponsoredTron (TRX)
Tron was not among the top 10 cryptocurrencies seven years ago, yet it still held a $4.6 billion market cap. During the last US shutdown, TRX became one of the biggest losers of the day, falling 17% in just 24 hours as market sentiment turned sharply bearish.
This time, conditions appear different as the broader crypto market shows greater resilience. Unlike in 2018, digital assets have matured and are less dependent on US political events. In the past 24 hours, the total crypto market cap climbed by $66 billion, signaling improved investor confidence.
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Tron’s price is currently at $0.338, eyeing a potential move past the $0.345 resistance. If momentum builds, TRX could record further gains. Even if bullish strength stalls, the altcoin is expected to consolidate above this support level.
SponsoredAave (AAVE)
AAVE mirrored Tron’s reaction during the previous US government shutdown, with the altcoin plunging nearly 20% in a single day. However, current conditions differ significantly, as the broader crypto market shows greater maturity and resilience, making a repeat of that steep decline less likely in the present environment.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicates strong inflows into AAVE, reflecting rising investor demand. These capital inflows could offset bearish sentiment triggered by political uncertainty. If momentum continues, AAVE could climb toward $300. This is provided it successfully breaches the $2.95 resistance level that has limited its recent upward progress.
If negative sentiment returns, AAVE may struggle to maintain its position. A breakdown below the $277 support would open the door for further losses, potentially dragging the token to $259 or lower. Such a decline would nullify the bullish outlook and highlight renewed vulnerability in AAVE’s price action.
Chainlink (LINK)
Six years ago, Chainlink ranked 87th among the top 100 cryptocurrencies with a modest $310 million market cap. Today, LINK commands a valuation of $15 billion, highlighting its remarkable growth and increasing relevance in the blockchain ecosystem.
In 2018, LINK suffered a 22% drop during the government shutdown, but conditions are different now. The MACD indicator signals a bullish crossover ahead, suggesting stronger momentum. This technical setup implies that the altcoin may avoid a repeat of its earlier decline and instead sustain upward movement in the near term.
Accelerated bullishness could push LINK beyond $23.4 soon, with potential gains extending to the $25.81 resistance level. However, risks remain if sentiment shifts negatively. A decline could see LINK fall to $19.91 or even $17.31, which would invalidate the bullish outlook and trigger investor caution.
