This week, despite being shortened by another holiday in the US, has multiple economic events with crypto implications.
However, instead of spreading them evenly throughout the already shortened week, these US economic indicators are mostly jammed into Tuesday and Thursday, with the latter a particularly busy day. Traders can front-run this week’s macroeconomic data by monitoring the following events.
US Economic Indicators to Watch This Week
Crypto investors should watch the following US economic indicators this week, as they could potentially cause Bitcoin (BTC) price volatility.
These macro data are particularly important as the labor market progressively presents as Bitcoin’s next macro.
JOLTS
The US job openings report kicks off this week’s US economic indicators with crypto implications. This Macroeconomic data point, also termed the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The May JOLTS report, due on Tuesday, is projected to come in lower than the 7.4 million recorded in April. According to economists surveyed by MarketWatch, data on job openings, hires, and separations in the US could come in at 7.3 million.
Despite the projected drop, a 7.3 million reading would still be above the multi-month low of 7.192 million recorded in March. Notwithstanding, it remains the key highlight of this week’s US economic indicators.
A decrease in job openings may signal a cooling labor market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider easing monetary policy. Such a shift could weaken the US dollar, making Bitcoin more attractive as an alternative asset.
Conversely, if job openings stabilize or increase, it may reinforce expectations of continued monetary tightening, possibly dampening Bitcoin’s appeal.
ADP Employment
Another highlight among US economic indicators is the ADP employment report for June 2025, due on Wednesday, July 2. Private-sector employment increased by 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest since March 2023.
However, the BLS report, which is more comprehensive and widely regarded as the official measure, indicated that private-sector employment increased by 140,000 jobs in May 2025.
However, economists see a median forecast of 120,000 increases for private sector employment. A lower-than-expected job growth figure could signal economic cooling, potentially prompting the Fed to consider easing monetary policy.
Such a shift might weaken the US dollar, making Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against currency depreciation.
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations of continued monetary tightening, possibly dampening Bitcoin’s appeal.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 hit 236,000, down from 245,000 the previous week and exceeding the forecast of 229,000.
With this reading, the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time came in below economists’ forecast of 248,000.
As part of the US economic indicators to watch this week, markets will see how many people filed for unemployment insurance for the week ending June 28.
With a median forecast of 240,000, an uptick in jobless claims may signal economic weakness. This would increase the likelihood of the Fed adopting a more accommodative monetary stance.
Such a shift could lead to a weaker dollar, enhancing Bitcoin’s attractiveness as an alternative asset. However, if the rise in claims is viewed as a temporary fluctuation, the impact on Bitcoin may be limited.
Meanwhile, analysts say a resilient labor market, coupled with sticky inflation, could allow interest rates to remain elevated. However, signs of a cooling job sector could temper the Fed’s path.
Non-Farm Payrolls
The US Employment report, or Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for June 2025, is scheduled for release on July 3. The economy added 139,000 jobs in May, after adding 177,000 jobs in April.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% in April and May. Notably, the NFP data comes on Thursday this time, given that Friday is a holiday in the US.
Data on MarketWatch shows that economists anticipate an increase of 4.3% in the US unemployment rate against a slowdown in jobs to 115,000. This drop or slowdown reflects potential economic impacts from President Trump’s tariffs.
Strong job growth may lead the Fed to maintain its current monetary policy stance or even consider tightening, which could strengthen the US dollar and potentially suppress Bitcoin. Analysts note a three-month positive trend in NFP.
However, despite revisions, they are not enough to move the market and are not significant enough to make a massive change in the labor market.
However, if underlying economic concerns prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish approach, Bitcoin could benefit as investors seek alternative stores of value.
Analysts say tough employment conditions in the US come as employers seeking clarity around the White House’s trade policy progressively have to deal with frequent adjustments to timelines and schedules.
As of this writing, Bitcoin has traded for $108,244, having risen by only 0.87% in the last 24 hours.
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