There are so many US economic events this week, but only a handful have implications for the crypto market.
After the CPI (Consumer Price Index) last week, traders and investors will be particularly focused on the FOMC interest rate decision this week.
US Economic Data That Could Move Bitcoin and Crypto Markets
Traders and investors may consider cushioning their portfolios by frontrunning the following US economic data.
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Retail Sales
Retail sales data tracks consumer spending, a key driver of US economic growth. Strong retail sales suggest resilient consumer demand, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher as investors anticipate inflationary pressure and tighter monetary policy.
This often translates into short-term downside for crypto markets, as higher yields and a stronger dollar reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, weak retail sales indicate slowing demand and a softer economy, which can fuel expectations of Fed rate cuts. That shift in sentiment tends to boost risk assets, including crypto, as liquidity becomes more accessible.
Often framed as both a hedge and a speculative asset, Bitcoin reacts sharply to retail sales surprises. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch project a 0.3% increase in retail sales for August, which would mean a drop from the 0.5% increase recorded in July.
Strong prints can trigger selloffs on this account, while weak prints can spark rallies, especially if investors expect a more accommodative Fed stance.
Sponsored Sponsored“Following the release of stronger producer price index (PPI) data yesterday, US Treasury bond yields increased, and the dollar gained strength while gold prices decreased. The upcoming retail sales and industrial production data, which are expected shortly, will also aid in assessing the inflation trend,” wrote Asad Rizvi, Former Treasury head at Chase Manhattan Bank.
FOMC Interest Rate Decision
Meanwhile, perhaps the most crucial US economic event this week is the FOMC interest rate decision, due on Wednesday. It follows the CPI reading last week, which was in line with market expectations.
Weaker-than-expected PPI data at 2.6% reinforced market confidence in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Despite political pressure from President Trump and his administration, Fed chair Jerome Powell has held a cautious stance.
Nevertheless, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets US monetary policy, so its decisions are critical for Bitcoin and crypto. Markets react to actual rate changes and to the Fed’s tone on inflation, growth, and liquidity.
SponsoredA hawkish stance, signaling higher rates or balance sheet tightening, typically pressures Bitcoin. This impact comes as borrowing costs rise and investors rotate toward safer, yield-generating assets.
Conversely, dovish signals, such as rate cuts or liquidity injections, support Bitcoin by weakening the dollar and encouraging risk-taking.
“Pay close attention. This CPI/FOMC pivot is going to be important to observe. BTC often prices in FOMC ahead of time. Early downside into the week suggests a rebound up, while early upside points to a likely pullback. Observe the key POIs,” wrote Killa, who trades derivatives.
Meanwhile, data on the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets are pricing in a 96.2% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.
Initial Jobless Claims
Sponsored SponsoredElsewhere, and with US labor data serving as a critical macro driver for Bitcoin in 2025, last week’s initial jobless claims, set for reporting on Thursday, will be a necessary watch.
This US economic data shows the number of US citizens who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
Initial jobless claims hit 263,000 for the week ending September 6, but analysts see this US economic data point dropping to 243,000 last week.
If claims spike sharply, markets may shift from optimism to risk aversion, fearing recession.
In that scenario, Bitcoin can initially fall alongside equities as investors de-risk, only to rebound later as safe-haven or “hard money” narratives gain traction.
The balance between Bitcoin’s risk-on correlation and hedge appeal makes jobless claims a nuanced but influential data point for crypto pricing.
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