Multiple US economic events are on the calendar this week, and could either hinder the Bitcoin price’s path to $110,000 or be the tailwinds that drive it further north.
The influence of US economic signals on Bitcoin and crypto remains significant in 2025, with associated sentiment becoming a critical factor in short-term price action.
US Economic Signals to Watch This Week
With increasing optimism about a deal to end the longstanding US government shutdown, the Bitcoin price is already showing strength and has climbed above the $105,000 threshold. However, whether it extends further north or retracts may hinge on the following headlines this week.
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Fed Speeches
A long list of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials is expected to speak this week. Fed governor Michael Barr speaks on Tuesday, while New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Fed governor Chris Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed governor Stephen Miran, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak on Wednesday.
Sentiments from these Fed officials, among others, in the week could influence investor sentiment, influencing the Bitcoin price’s directional bias.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that the Fed will soon expand its balance sheet again. This signaled preparation for a new phase of quantitative easing (QE).
“Our long-stated plan has been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a recent press conference. “Signs have clearly emerged that we have reached that standard in money markets,” he added.
The news sent crypto investors into a frenzy in anticipation of a surge in fresh liquidity. At the same time, skeptics warned that it could inflate a dangerous bubble.
Sponsored SponsoredAgainst this backdrop, further indications or statements regarding QE down the road could further influence sentiment.
Initial Jobless Claims
Another key US economic event to watch this week is the Initial Jobless Claims, which reports the number of US Citizens who filed for unemployment insurance the previous week.
This metric serves as a leading indicator of labor market health. As such, lower-than-expected claims signal economic strength and stability, while higher-than-expected claims indicate weakness, potential layoffs, and increased recession risks.
Higher-than-expected jobless claims are Bullish for Bitcoin, as they signal potential Fed rate cuts. Conversely, lower-than-expected claims are bearish, often signaling delays or cuts.
Notably, however, the release of this data point, or its absence, depends on whether the US government shutdown will have ended by Thursday.
Sponsored“After 40 days, the Senate unlocked a path to reopen the government. Final vote: 60-40. I voted for the 15th time to end the Schumer Shutdown… I’m frustrated that Oklahomans have faced almost six weeks of unnecessary hardship, travel delays, and missed paychecks. Still, after this important vote, I’m optimistic the Schumer Shutdown will soon come to an end,” said Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin.
Reportedly, eight Democrats voted with Republicans to reach the necessary 60-vote threshold to end the filibuster. This vote has failed 14 times in the past 40 days.
CPI
The October CPI (Consumer Price Index) data may also be released this week, on Thursday, to show how prices rose in October. Like the initial jobless claims, however, this schedule is contingent on the government shutdown ending.
It follows the September CPI, which came in below expectations, showing inflation rose at an annual rate of 3% year-over-year in October.
“We’ve got 4 days until CPI. The narrative leading into it will shape what comes next, another local top or a local bottom,” crypto analyst Killa stated.
As long as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, it keeps monetary policy restrictive, delaying aggressive rate cuts. This is mildly bearish for Bitcoin, which thrives on liquidity.
Sponsored SponsoredIf CPI rises from the 3.0% seen in September, the persistent inflation could force the Fed to pause or hike, draining risk appetite. Conversely, a drop below the 3.0% would confirm disinflation, boosting rate-cut expectations.
PPI
The PPI is also contingent on the end of the US government shutdown, as it measures wholesale inflation or the cost that producers pay for goods before they reach consumers.
“This week is all about inflation + politics. Markets are bracing for a double-header: CPI on Thursday and PPI + Retail Sales on Friday, a full read on inflation and consumer strength. These prints will set the tone for risk assets into year-end,” analyst Mark Cullen stated.
Based on these tentative US economic events, the US government shutdown drama remains a crucial factor in the Bitcoin price’s directional bias this week.
As of this writing, BTC was trading for $106,195, up by over 4% in the last 24 hours.
