Bitcoin enters the final week of February on fragile footing, with macro forces (US economic events) once again dictating short-term direction.
After last week’s mixed signals, including moderating PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims at 206,000, and cautious FOMC minutes, markets remain undecided on the pace of rate cuts ahead of the March 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting.
4 US Economic Events That Traders Are Watching Closely
With rate expectations finely balanced, this week’s economic calendar could inject fresh volatility into crypto markets.
Fed Officials Take the Stage
A crowded slate of Federal Reserve speeches runs from Monday through Wednesday, featuring Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and others.
With markets currently pricing in two to three cuts in 2026, any deviation in tone could quickly shift rate expectations.
Historically, Waller and Bostic have leaned hawkish, emphasizing vigilance against inflation and data dependence.
If they reiterate concerns about “last-mile” disinflation or signal patience on cuts, Treasury yields could rise alongside the US dollar. Such an outcome could pressure Bitcoin and potentially push it lower.
Conversely, dovish commentary highlighting slowing growth or labor softening could weaken the dollar and spark a relief rally in risk assets.
Clustered appearances also increase the risk of intraday swings, particularly if messaging lacks cohesion. For Bitcoin traders, tone, not policy action, may be the key volatility trigger this week.
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Index follows January’s weak 84.5 reading, well below expectations and historically consistent with recessionary signals.
February is projected to improve modestly to 87.5, though sentiment remains subdued amid elevated living costs and persistent inflation.
Last week’s PCE data showed inflation at 2.7% year-over-year, with core at 3.0%, reflecting lingering price pressures.
A stronger-than-expected confidence print, particularly above 90, would reinforce a resilient consumer narrative and strengthen the “no-landing” thesis.
That could reduce near-term rate cut expectations, lift the dollar, and weigh modestly on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, a downside surprise below 85 would highlight economic fragility. That outcome would likely boost rate-cut odds, which are currently elevated for March, and provide tailwinds for BTC.
Historically, confidence surprises have triggered 1–2% moves in Bitcoin, particularly when aligned with broader macro trends.
Initial Jobless Claims
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims remain one of the timeliest indicators of the labor market. Last week’s drop to 206,000 surprised to the downside, reinforcing a tight employment backdrop that has kept the Fed cautious about easing prematurely. Consensus now expects 215,000.
If claims fall below 210,000, it would signal ongoing labor strength and potentially embolden hawkish Fed voices.
That scenario could lift yields and modestly pressure Bitcoin. Strong employment data tends to delay rate cut expectations, reducing liquidity support for risk assets.
Conversely, a spike above 225,000 would raise concerns about labor cooling, particularly if paired with softer business surveys.
Such a development could fuel recession fears and increase the probability of rate cuts—supportive for Bitcoin as traders anticipate easier financial conditions.
Though weekly claims typically generate 0.5–1.5% BTC volatility, the reaction could be amplified if the data contrasts sharply with earlier Fed commentary.
PPI (Producer Price Index)
January’s PPI (Producer Price Index) will close out the week, with headline and core readings expected around 3.0% year-over-year.
Following last week’s PCE release, PPI offers upstream insight into inflationary pressures before they reach consumers.
A hotter-than-expected core reading above 3.2% would likely reignite inflation concerns and diminish rate cut bets. That scenario could mirror post-PCE weakness seen recently, pressuring Bitcoin by strengthening the dollar and lifting real yields.
However, a cooler print below 2.8% would reinforce disinflation momentum. Markets would likely price in more aggressive easing, weakening the USD, and potentially pushing Bitcoin toward $70,000.
As a month-end release, PPI often solidifies weekly trends. Combined with jobless claims, it could produce 2–3% Bitcoin swings if expectations are materially challenged.
With Bitcoin’s correlation to the Nasdaq and the US dollar near multi-month highs, macro remains the dominant narrative.
If this week’s data skews dovish, BTC could rally 3–5%. A unified hawkish tone, however, may trigger a pullback of similar magnitude. Liquidity expectations, not crypto fundamentals, remain in control.
