Since its launch in January, Trump’s infamous meme coin has become a form of political expression among crypto investors. Meanwhile, the MELANIA token experienced a completely different fate, plummeting immediately with seemingly no hope of return.
According to fintech lawyer Burçak Ünsal, TRUMP and MELANIA are speculative and lack utility. However, the TRUMP coin’s value is directly tied to political events. This dynamic could change if TRUMP merges with other projects, gaining utility and stability, a possibility Ünsal says is fueled by Trump’s increasing engagement with crypto.
From Peaks to Plummets: How TRUMP Trades on Political News
Like most meme coin launches, TRUMP’s price trajectory has been marked by sharp volatility and disappointing performance. However, despite other launches, it has also been highly politicized. In fact, its trading activity still serves as an indicator of investor sentiment toward political events.
Launched in January, the token saw an explosive rise, soaring to an all-time high of nearly $75 following Trump’s endorsement. After its sharp decline, trading activity only reignited in response to events closely linked to the president.
SponsoredFor instance, in April, the coin’s price jumped by over 50% following the announcement that the top holders would be invited to a private dinner with the president and a special VIP White House tour.
It also dropped sharply to an all-time low when Trump announced a series of trade tariffs and when a feud broke out between the President and Elon Musk.
The recent launch and trading of the Trump family’s separate crypto project, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), has also influenced the market, boosting the TRUMP’s value after a related Nasdaq bell-ringing ceremony in August.
With Trump barely a year into his presidency, it’ll be interesting to see what the future of his meme coin holds.
Why TRUMP Holds a Slight Edge Over MELANIA
TRUMP and MELANIA meme coins share a similar, highly volatile price history. They were launched as a political project just before Trump’s inauguration. While insiders saw significant returns, many retail investors later experienced major losses.
Although TRUMP has branched out as a tool for gauging receptiveness to political events, the coin remains speculative.
“TRUMP isn’t just a digital asset—it’s a politically charged statement. Its value is deeply tied to Trump’s public standing and the media spotlight he attracts. However, this is also why TRUMP is speculative by design. TRUMP’s price movements have been tied almost entirely to Trump’s personal visibility, political events, and media hype, not inherent utility,” Ünsal told BeInCrypto.
The coin has not developed into a payment system, infrastructure token, or governance mechanism, restricting its broader functional relevance.
So far, its primary purpose has been symbolic ownership, donation-like contributions, or exclusive access to events such as NFT tie-ins.
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Meanwhile, MELANIA’s statistical odds of a meaningful recovery are nearly non-existent.
“MELANIA went down from $12,76 to $0,20… 98% meltdown, widely described as a failed ‘pump-and-dump,’ with alleged misuse of around $30M in community funds, insider wallets trading before announcements, thin liquidity, low unique holder growth, limited utility, and heavy reputational overhang,” Ünsal added.
Based on this outlook, he considers a genuine turnaround unlikely, as it would demand transparent governance reforms and demonstrated utility.
Without these conditions, any potential rallies would likely be brief liquidity-driven events, lacking the foundation for lasting momentum.
Future outcomes may favor the TRUMP token, which holds stronger odds than MELANIA of maturing into something more meaningful.
The Road Ahead for TRUMP
Trump’s second administration has created a markedly more crypto-friendly environment. Enforcement from the SEC has softened, with high-profile lawsuits against Coinbase and Binance stalled, and even pardons linked to BitMEX.
Additionally, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a federal digital asset stockpile has lent legitimacy to the sector, signaling broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
SponsoredAccording to Ünsal, this mix of deregulatory momentum and institutional recognition forms a policy backdrop that could directly influence TRUMP’s trajectory over the coming years.
“This policy context creates a favorable backdrop for TRUMP, especially during windows where mainstream recognition of crypto assets increases,” he said.
Still, the coin faces structural risks. The scheduled release of the remaining TRUMP supply over the next three years could saturate the market if demand fails to match. Large holders could further amplify volatility through concentrated buying or selling.
On the potential upside, Ünsal highlighted how sustained deregulatory trends and symbolic visibility might stabilize the token:
“If the current deregulatory stance sustains and the coin obtains a quasi-mainstream sheen… TRUMP could stabilize or even rebound,” he added.
He framed the next phase as inherently tied to political and media dynamics.
“The next 12–24 months for TRUMP coin will be a rollercoaster tied deeply to political maneuvers, policy environments, and media optics. If Trump stays in the spotlight with favorable crypto policy narratives, we may expect episodic rallies,” Ünsal said.
While policy tailwinds may shape near-term sentiment, TRUMP’s long-term sustainability will depend on more than regulation or media cycles.
Utility as the Missing Piece for Longevity
Sponsored SponsoredAnalysts generally agree that lasting value in crypto requires clear utility, ecosystem integration, supply and demand stability mechanisms, and regulatory clarity. Ünsal noted that TRUMP lacks utility and integration within broader applications or real-world assets.
However, this picture could change if the president merged his meme token with other existing crypto projects. Ünsal used Truth.Fi as an example.
“If Truth.Fi were to natively integrate TRUMP, it transforms the coin’s role from a speculative side project into a core loyalty [and] identity token,” he said.
Such integration could anchor TRUMP in a politically aligned user base numbering in the tens of millions. In this context, holders might treat the coin as an ideological expression and a form of financial participation.
“This narrative shift could convert hype traders into sticky holders, which naturally reduces volatility,” Ünsal added, noting, “TRUMP [could] become a networked political currency rather than a meme token floating on Binance.”
In this scenario, the coin’s baseline shifts from hype-driven speculation to politicized participation, adding a stabilizing element many overlook.
What Would It Take for TRUMP to Mature?
The TRUMP meme coin has endured longer than many peers, standing at the intersection of politics and crypto. Its value reflects political visibility and media attention more than inherent utility, making it unique and speculative. MELANIA’s collapse illustrates the risks of tokens without governance or integration.
Trump’s second administration has created a supportive policy backdrop. Some argue that integration with platforms like Truth.Fi could help stabilize demand, but such scenarios remain purely hypothetical.
Without tangible utility, broader adoption, and mechanisms to balance supply and demand, TRUMP’s price will stay tied to politics rather than fundamentals.
Its outlook is conditional: future potential exists, but sustainability hinges on moving beyond hype.
