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Toncoin (TON) in Danger of Top 10 Loss as Tron Climbs Higher

3 mins
Updated by Daria Krasnova
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In Brief

  • Toncoin's market cap drops by $4 billion as Tron surpasses it after a sharp 18% decline.
  • Large investors hesitate on Toncoin, reducing buying activity amid market uncertainty.
  • Toncoin's price further decline below $5 if market conditions fail to improve quickly.
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Telegram Coin Toncoin (TON) has lost its market cap position to Tron (TRX) following a recent price correction and the ongoing detention of Pavel Durov. Before Sunday’s events, TON had a market cap of $17.20 billion, while Tron’s market cap was over $14 billion after surpassing Cardano.

However, with TON’s market cap declining, its position in the top 10 cryptocurrencies is now at risk, potentially leading to a further slide in the rankings.

The Flagship Telegram Coin Drops Behind Tron

Toncoin’s market cap has dropped to $13.47 billion, reflecting a staggering $4 billion decline over the past three days.

For those unfamiliar, market cap is calculated by multiplying the circulating supply by the asset’s price. Therefore, TON’s price drop has directly contributed to this decline. In contrast, Tron (TRX) is in a more favorable position.

While TON’s price has decreased by 18% over the last 30 days, TRX’s value has increased by the same percentage. This rise in TRX’s price is largely attributed to the launch of SunPump, a meme coin token generator introduced by the blockchain’s founder, Justin Sun.

Read more: What Are Telegram Bot Coins?

Toncoin vs. Tron Market Cap
Toncoin vs. Tron Market Cap. Source: Santiment

It’s not as though Toncoin hasn’t had positive developments. Before the recent hype around Tron, the launch of numerous bot coins on Telegram — a messaging app closely tied to TON blockchain — brought significant attention to the cryptocurrency.

However, the ongoing sell-offs and Pavel Durov’s unresolved situation suggest that Toncoin’s price and market cap could drop further. Additionally, Toncoin’s Large Holders Inflow has decreased by 95% over the last seven days.

Large Holders Inflow tracks the activity of wallets holding over 1% of a cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply. Spikes in this metric typically indicate that large investors are buying after a significant price correction.

Toncoin Large Holders Inflow.
Toncoin Large Holders Inflow. Source: IntoTheBlock

In TON’s case, the decrease in this metric suggests that large investors are remaining cautious and not purchasing TON at the current price, potentially signaling further downside risk.

If this remains the same, the crypto might find it challenging to erase some of its recent losses, possibly preceding a further price decrease or loss of the number 10 market spot to Cardano (ADA).

TON Price Prediction: Set for Another Breakdown

On the daily chart, TON’s price remains under considerable pressure. For instance, the Telegram coin attempted to reach $6 yesterday, but as of this writing, it has dropped to $5.32, likely due to the broader market decline today.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TON has decreased. The RSI measures momentum by evaluating the size and speed of price changes. An increasing RSI indicates bullish momentum, while a decreasing RSI suggests bearish momentum.

In TON’s case, the decreasing RSI indicates bearish momentum, signaling the potential for further price declines. Using the Fibonacci retracement indicator, BeInCrypto identifies key support and resistance levels for Toncoin.

The chart below shows that the 38.2% Fib level has recently acted as a resistance zone for TON, suggesting that it could be challenging for the cryptocurrency to achieve higher highs. TON must hold this Fib level to have a chance at climbing.

Read more: 10 Best Altcoin Exchanges In 2024

Toncoin Daily Analysis.
Toncoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

If market prices continue to fall, TON’s price could drop below $5, possibly declining to $4.85. However, a rebound might occur if the blockchain resumes block production, which has been experiencing an outage.

In that scenario, increased transactions involving Toncoin could boost buying pressure and potentially push the price toward $5.67.

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Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Victor Olanrewaju
Victor Olanrewaju is a technical and on-chain analyst at BeInCrypto, where he monitors the activities of mid- and large-scale investors, commonly known as crypto whales, to detect investment trends across diverse cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, altcoins such as Solana, XRP, Cardano, and Toncoin, as well as meme coins like Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe. Additionally, he covers emerging trends including Tap-to-Earn games, AI tokens, and real-world assets (RWA). Before joining BeInCrypto...
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