SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file its Initial Public Offering (IPO) prospectus with regulators as early as this week, targeting a June 2026 listing that could raise over $75 billion.
That figure alone would exceed the $44 billion raised by all 202 US IPOs combined in 2025, according to Renaissance Capital data.
The Largest IPO in History Takes Shape
The confidential filing follows SpaceX’s February 2026 all-stock merger with xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company. That deal valued the combined entity at roughly $1.25 trillion, making it the most valuable pre-IPO company ever assembled.
SpaceX now controls a vertically integrated stack spanning Starship heavy-lift rockets, the Starlink satellite broadband network with 9.2 million active subscribers, and xAI’s Grok AI models.
The company generated over $10 billion in Starlink revenue last year, with analyst projections for 2026 ranging between $15.9 billion and $24 billion.
Bloomberg reported that the filing would position SpaceX as the first of three potential mega-IPOs this year, with Anthropic and OpenAI expected to follow.
Why Retail Investors Should Resist the FOMO
Despite the excitement, several risk factors suggest day-one buyers face an unfavorable setup.
- At a targeted valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would trade at roughly 80 to 100 times trailing revenue.
That multiple prices are not just in Starlink’s growth trajectory but also in unproven ambitions like orbital AI data centers and a lunar base.
- Most retail investors will not receive shares at the offer price.
Instead, they would buy on the open market after an expected first-day pop. History shows that mega-hyped IPOs often surge at the open as institutions flip allocated shares, then fade in subsequent weeks.
- Lock-up expiration, typically 180 days after listing, presents another headwind.
Early investors and insiders who entered at valuations between $200 billion and $800 billion stand to realize massive gains. That selling pressure has historically weighed on post-IPO performance for high-profile debuts.
The Smarter Entry May Come Later
Analysts broadly recommend patience over day-one purchases for this listing.
Motley Fool analyst Brett Schafer wrote that SpaceX stock looks expensive at current valuation targets and advised investors not to chase the IPO.
“SpaceX is a fascinating business with a huge opportunity ahead. However, don’t think you need to chase this stock and buy it right at the IPO,” wrote Motley Fool.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) on post-IPO weakness, rather than buying the euphoria, may offer a more favorable risk-reward profile.
Key proof points to watch include Starship reusability at volume, Starlink margin expansion, and any progress toward orbital compute prototypes.
SpaceX’s long-term thesis remains one of the most compelling in technology. However, the price on opening day will likely reflect years of that optimism baked in, plus a significant Musk premium.
For most investors, the second chance may offer better odds than the first.
