Raoul Pal, who ran European hedge-fund sales at Goldman Sachs before founding Real Vision, has rejected claims that money is fleeing crypto for technology stocks. He says the data tell a different story.
His pushback came as US equities slipped at Wednesday’s open, pressured by fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve and stalled Iran-US talks.
Why Raoul Pal Is Pushing Back on the Crypto Doom Narrative
Pal challenges the crypto is finished narrative, rejecting the sentiment that capital now favors AI and chip makers.
To back the claims, he measures returns from the 2022 liquidity-cycle low, when the FTX collapse drove Bitcoin near $15,700 in November.
From that trough, Bitcoin has gained about 318%, trading near $65,800. The Nasdaq 100 has risen roughly 187% over the same span, to near 30,660.
That gap is the heart of his case. Bitcoin has outpaced the tech benchmark by a wide margin, even after a steep recent pullback.
Pal argues that liquidity cycles, not market narratives, drive prices. He has made that case since launching Global Macro Investor in 2005, and frames the current weakness as a mid-cycle correction.
“The ‘Crypto is dead, its all going to tech stocks’ narrative is alluring but overall this is the actual results from the liquidity cycle low in 2022…” Pal wrote.
Other analysts also expect crypto to outperform tech stocks.
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Bitcoin Trades Below Its Record as Stocks Wobble
Despite the cumulative gains, Bitcoin has cooled lately. The token traded near $65,800 on Wednesday, down about 2.7% over 24 hours. That sits far below its record high of $126,080, though its market value still tops $1.3 trillion.
Stocks, meanwhile, opened weak. Over $500 billion was wiped from US equities within 20 minutes of the open, analyst Bull Theory said.
“US equity indices pulled back from records amid risks of a hawkish Federal Reserve and the lack of progress between Iran and the US. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 edged lower and the Dow lost 0.5%. Data from the ADP showed the private sector added a net 122,000 jobs in May, above expectations, to add leeway for the Fed to raise rates and fight inflation.,” wrote analysts at Trading Economics.
Pal’s framework has both supporters and critics. Backers say the data confirms that global liquidity expansion rewards high-beta assets like Bitcoin.
Skeptics argue he picked the exact low. Others say AI has changed how capital now flows into equities.
Pal also contends Bitcoin trades at a discount to liquidity conditions. His models point toward a higher liquidity target once financial conditions ease again.
The token’s link to the Nasdaq has tightened over the past year. That connection cuts both ways, since Bitcoin tends to fall harder when stocks drop.
Bitrue