Polymarket’s World Cup winner market attracted more than 194,000 unique addresses, but roughly two-thirds finished underwater.
The World Cup closed with Spain beating Argentina 1-0 in the July 19 final. Data compiled by an analyst shows the payouts concentrated among a handful of large winners. Meanwhile, most participants recorded only marginal gains or losses.
Where the World Cup Profits Went on Polymarket
Nearly 130,000 addresses finished the market in the red, about 66.7% of all participants. Nonetheless, most of the damage stayed small.
A total of 114,126 addresses each lost under $100, with an average loss of less than $10. At the other extreme, 43 addresses lost more than $100,000, shedding a combined $15 million.
The profit side mirrored that shape. Some 57,991 addresses gained under $100 each, averaging less than $5. Larger wins stayed rare across the market.
Only 54 addresses cleared more than $100,000, together banking $22.3 million. The analyst identified five wallets that each topped $1 million, including asparagus2012, Allezpapa, yamal19, thesingularityisnear, and wco26.
According to Arkham, asparagus2012 operated 7 separate accounts. The trader generated more than $7.4 million across World Cup markets and funneled the winnings into a single address.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Prediction Market Activity Cools Before Another Football Season
The tournament drew traders and heavy volume to prediction markets, but activity has since cooled. Open interest across Kalshi and Polymarket has dropped as major sporting events fade from the calendar, according to Artemis data.
Bernstein analyst Ian Moore expects a quiet stretch through August before the National Football League (NFL) season starts in September.
“August is always a pretty light month for the sports books and the traditional ones. And now the prediction markets as well… You kind of have to wait until NFL season kicks off in September to get that bounce in handle,” he said.
The analyst pointed to a Week 1 slate as an early draw for the platforms. The coming weeks will test whether prediction markets can hold the audience the World Cup delivered.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights
Bitrue