Pi Coin’s recent decline was not unexpected. The altcoin had been forming a pattern that clearly signaled directional weakness, and the breakdown has now materialized.
Adding to the concern, Bitcoin’s influence over Pi Coin appears to be fading, removing a key external support mechanism that had previously provided some degree of price stability.
Pi Coin Holders Are Selling
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has dropped sharply over the past few days, registering a two-and-a-half-month low. This dramatic downtick confirms that capital is exiting Pi Coin at an accelerating pace. The speed and scale of this outflow suggest investors are not gradually reducing exposure but actively pulling money out of the asset.
A CMF at multi-month lows reflects deep bearish conviction among Pi Coin’s investor base. When capital outflows reach this intensity, price recovery attempts typically struggle to gain traction without a significant catalyst. The current reading leaves Pi Coin vulnerable to continued downside pressure as the absence of fresh inflows creates a demand vacuum beneath current price levels.
Pi Coin’s correlation with Bitcoin recently dipped below zero, a concerning development for an altcoin that had previously benefited from BTC’s recovery momentum. A negative correlation means Pi Coin was moving in the opposite direction to Bitcoin, stripping it of a key tailwind during a period when the broader market was recovering.
The correlation has since recovered slightly to 0.10, but this near-zero reading still indicates minimal alignment with Bitcoin’s price movements. The practical implication is that even a strong Bitcoin rally would provide little meaningful uplift for Pi Coin at current correlation levels. This independence from BTC’s positive momentum makes the altcoin significantly more vulnerable to its own internal bearish dynamics.
PI Price Drawdown Could Extend
Pi Coin is trading at $0.174, holding above the $0.171 support level aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line. The altcoin is simultaneously breaking down from an ascending channel pattern, a bearish technical development that has been forming since last month. The breakdown point below $0.197 confirms the pattern has activated.
The ascending channel breakdown projects a 22.2% decline targeting $0.152. Given the CMF deterioration and weakening Bitcoin correlation, a drop toward $0.155 at the 23.6% Fibonacci level appears increasingly probable. Losing that bear market support floor would expose Pi Coin to a steeper decline toward $0.141.
A shift in investor sentiment remains the only credible bullish path. Halting selling and reclaiming $0.197 as support would invalidate the bearish thesis, opening Pi Coin’s path toward $0.216 and reversing the channel breakdown.
