The Bitcoin (BTC) price has been decreasing since reaching an all-time high price of $61,844 on March 13.
Despite the drop, bitcoin is expected to bounce soon — even if the count is bearish.
Long-Term Count for BTC
The most likely count suggests that BTC is in a long-term wave five (white) of a bullish impulse that began on March 2020. The sub-wave count is shown in orange and indicates that BTC is in sub-wave five.
The most likely target for the top of the move is found at $67,000. Afterwards, a significant correction is expected.
The sub-wave count and minor sub-wave counts (black) are shown below. They are a little unusual, due to the irregular flat in minor sub-wave two.
There is sufficient alternation between minor sub-waves two and four, so this is considered a valid count.
Furthermore, due to the short-term channel, the possibility of this count being correct is even more likely.
The count would be invalidated at $50,203, which is the top of minor sub-wave one.
For the previous wave count article, click here.
The most likely alternative count suggests that BTC is still in sub-wave four (orange).
In this case, the most likely scenario would be a running flat pattern. In this case, BTC could fall to the support line of the channel at $47,000. This is also the 0.786 fib retracement level of the entire upward move.
While an irregular flat is also possible, the drop since the March 13 all-time high does not look impulsive at all. Therefore, it seems unlikely.
If BTC is indeed in the Y minor sub-wave (black), the decrease has to be an impulse. The ongoing drop does not seem impulsive at all.
Therefore, even if this is the correct count, a significant bounce would be expected prior to another drop.
There are two likely counts for the ongoing BTC movement.
The bullish wave count appears to be the most likely to transpire. Even if Bitcoin follows the bearish count, a short-term bounce would be expected prior to another drop.