OpenAI executives are reportedly urging caution on its IPO timeline after SpaceX’s turbulent public debut, highlighting risks in mega-AI listings.
The development comes as Polymarket traders price roughly 30-40% odds of no OpenAI IPO by end-2026, underscoring investor skepticism in a high-stakes market.
SpaceX Price Action: Explosive Debut Turns Sour
SpaceX priced its massive $75 billion IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026. Shares (SPCX) opened at $150, rocketed to an intraday high of $225+ on June 17, and briefly pushed the market cap above $2 trillion.
However, reality set in fast. The stock has since given up most gains, sliding sharply lower. As of June 26, SPCX trades around $152.86, hovering near its listing price after multiple double-digit daily drops.
This volatility, strong debut followed by swift 25-30% retracement, is now reportedly influencing OpenAI’s boardroom.
Internal Push for Delay at OpenAI
OpenAI filed confidentially with the SEC on June 8 but emphasized timing remains flexible.
“It may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company,” the company said.
Sarah Friar has reportedly urged waiting until 2027, citing massive ongoing cash burn, compute infrastructure commitments, and the burden of public reporting.
This creates tension with CEO Sam Altman, who favored a quicker timeline.
Sources close to the matter (WSJ, The Information) confirm the SpaceX precedent is amplifying concerns.
Why It Matters for Investors
In today’s market, even blockbuster listings face immediate scrutiny over profitability and lock-up expirations.
OpenAI’s last private valuation neared $850 billion, leaving little room for error if public markets turn skeptical.
OpenAI’s IPO window remains open but uncertain.
Watch SpaceX’s stabilization in July, potential Anthropic moves, and OpenAI’s Q3 updates. A delayed but stronger listing could still deliver historic returns, provided the company proves sustainable AI revenue amid cooling investor appetite for growth-at-all-costs stories.
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