Oil clawed back above $70 a barrel on Monday, June 29, after a new round of US-Iran strikes over the Strait of Hormuz rattled energy markets over the weekend. This is despite both sides agreeing to stand down and return to the negotiating table.
West Texas Intermediate futures rose 1.3% to $70.17. Brent climbed to $73.21. Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest levels since late February by last Thursday, June 25, before the latest exchange of strikes broke out.
What Happened Over the Weekend
The trigger was a June 25 drone strike by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely, a container ship operated by Taiwan’s Evergreen Marine. The vessel was transiting the southern corridor near the Omani coast when the IRGC hit it, just days after the UN launched an evacuation plan for hundreds of stranded ships.
The US launched retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites on June 26. The IRGC hit US forces in Bahrain with drones on June 27. The US struck Iran again that same day. By June 28, Iran had targeted US positions in both Bahrain and Kuwait.
President Donald Trump warned of devastating consequences on Truth Social, writing that US aircraft had struck Iranian missile and drone storage facilities for violating the ceasefire “AGAIN!”
“United States aircraft just struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations, and coastal radar sites, for violating the Cease Fire Agreement, AGAIN!… If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist!”
— Donald Trump, Truth Social
Markets Caught Between War and Diplomacy
A US official told Reuters that “both sides will stand down for now and vessels can move freely,” with technical talks set for Doha on Tuesday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held firm, insisting Tehran alone manages Hormuz traffic and will not yield that authority.
Shipping data showed only 48 vessel transits through Hormuz between June 26 and June 28, down from 70 on the Wednesday before the escalation. Traders have watched this Hormuz oil dynamic play out all month.
Oil rises hard on war signals and barely moves on peace ones. Tuesday’s Doha session will test whether both sides can resolve the dispute over who controls the waterway.
