Why October Could Be the Best Time to Exit Before the Bear Market Begins

October left a deep mark on the crypto market, recording the largest liquidation event in history. This month could also represent the last opportunity for investors to exit at favorable prices before the bear market begins.

Based on analyses from reputable sources, the following review highlights key on-chain and technical indicators investors should consider when assessing risks during this sensitive phase.

The Bull/Bear Market Indicator Flashes a Bearish Signal

The first sign comes from 10x Research’s Bull/Bear Market Indicator. According to their latest report, this indicator flashes a bearish signal in October.

The report emphasizes that Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled. On-chain and derivatives signals that once fueled the rally are now fading. Institutional investors quietly tighten risk exposure, while retail traders remain trapped near breakeven levels.

10x Research’s proprietary models suggest that the market is at a critical turning point—either a sharp correction or a strong recovery could follow.

“We have maintained a tactically bearish stance, anticipating a potential pullback toward $100,000,” the firm stated.

Additionally, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator from CryptoQuant also reinforces this view. This model tracks market cycles based on on-chain data. The 365-day moving average (Bull-Bear 365 MA) has dropped close to zero.

The indicator has now entered the “Bear” zone. If conditions deteriorate further, it could move into the “Extreme Bear” phase as the Bull-Bear 365 MA slips below zero.

Historically, when this indicator and its 365 MA fall below zero, it signals the start of a prolonged bear market.

Another critical factor comes from the four-year market cycle. While some analysts claim the four-year rhythm is dead, price data still follows this established pattern.

A previous study by Alphractal, based on the four-year cycle, consisting of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a one-year bear phase, continues to prove accurate.

According to this model, the cycle peak is expected around October 2025, followed by a potential bottom in October 2026.

Finally, analyst Alejandro₿TC on X (formerly Twitter) highlighted the importance of the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) trendline. He observed that a bear market begins each time the RSI breaks its long-term upward trendline.

In the previous cycle, RSI retested the trendline before the major crash. In the current cycle, the same behavior just occurred -RSI retested and shows signs of weakening.

Alejandro₿TC suggested this may be a calm opportunity to exit before a major decline:

“Every time the monthly trendline broke, a bear market started. The good news: it always gave time to exit calmly before the big drop.” Alejandro₿TC said.

Multiple data points, including on-chain indicators, market cycle models, and technical signals, are aligning. They all suggest October could be the best time to exit before the bear market begins.

However, forecasts remain forecasts. Several factors could still support bullish momentum—such as potential Fed rate cuts, capital rotation from gold to crypto, and strong ETF and institutional accumulation.

While caution is warranted, the coming months may define whether the market resets—or reignites.