Nike stock closed at $38.59 on Wednesday, a 12-year low that puts the shoemaker on pace for its worst calendar year since 1993.
That was the year Michael Jordan first retired. A Barchart post comparing the two years is circulating widely, and the parallel runs deeper than the coincidence suggests.
The 1993 Collapse Started Before Jordan Walked Away
Jordan announced his first retirement on October 6, 1993. By that date, Barchart’s data shows Nike stock had already fallen roughly 40% on the year.
The retirement was not the cause. The United States sneaker market had saturated, and Nike posted its first revenue decline in a decade.
Fiscal 1994 revenue fell 3.6% to $3.79 billion. Net income dropped 18% to $298.8 million. Jordan’s exit deepened a selloff that was already running.
The 2026 sequence looks similar. Shares fell 15.5% on April 1 after earnings. That was months before August’s China headlines.
| 1993 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar-year loss | 43.5% | 38% through Aug. 26 |
| Blamed catalyst | Jordan retires Oct. 6 | China, tariffs, downgrades |
| Already down beforehand | about 40% | about 29% by April 1 |
| Business problem | Revenue down 3.6%, first drop in a decade | China EBIT down 45%, 8 straight down quarters |
| Chief rival | Reebok at its peak | On, Hoka, Anta, Li-Ning |
| What came next | +63.7%, +88.9%, +73.6% | Unknown |
Greater China revenue has now declined for eight consecutive quarters. A one-time tariff refund also flattered the most recent quarter’s reported margin.
Nike Stock Monthly Chart Shows Rare Technical Damage
The monthly chart places Nike stock 78.55% below its November 2021 record. Price has returned to where it traded in August 2014.
The monthly relative strength index (RSI) reads 28.64, under the 30 line that marks oversold conditions. Readings that low are rare on a monthly timeframe.
Volume has climbed steadily through the decline. That indicates conviction behind the selling, although heavy volume at multi-year lows can also mark capitulation.
Two converging trendlines point toward the low $30s by year’s end. Support sits at $38.41, with resistance at $43.21. The drawdown already exceeds Bitcoin‘s over the same stretch.
A monthly close between roughly $33 and $35 would beat the 1993 loss, depending on how it is measured.
What Happened After 1993
Nike stock gained 63.7% in 1994, then 88.9% in 1995 and 73.6% in 1996. Jordan returned to basketball in March 1995.
History guarantees no repeat. Nike has scheduled an investor day for November 16 and 17. Replacement Sportswear product does not arrive until spring 2027.
Those two dates, rather than the Jordan anniversary, may decide whether 2026 marks a bottom or a waypoint.
Bitrue