Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU) will drive a third of S&P 500 2026 earnings growth, Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders said. Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $80,000 the same day.
The chipmaker’s earnings land Wednesday, a report Wall Street is treating as a verdict on the entire AI trade. Sonders called the resulting rotation into concentrated winners and away from crowded positions the market’s defining dynamic.
Nvidia and Micron’s Earnings Concentration
Sonders is chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. On this week’s “Closing Bell,” she broke down how concentrated 2026 earnings growth has become.
Nvidia alone accounts for 18% of the S&P 500’s expected year-over-year earnings growth, she said. Micron’s AI memory chips add another 14 percentage points.
“I think rotation in and of itself is the new momentum trade.”
Liz Ann Sonders, CNBC
Nvidia’s earnings report arrives after seven straight losing sessions, even as prediction markets price in a near-certain beat. Some earlier analysis of the setup pointed to positioning and options flow, not fundamentals, as the driver of that mismatch.
Bitcoin Broke $80,000 as Capital Looks Elsewhere
Bitcoin’s rally arrived alongside heavier bond market stress and dollar weakness. Both followed the Treasury Department’s move to expand its long-term bond buybacks.
The token touched a fresh multi-month high above $81,000 this week before pulling back, trading near $78,400 at publication time.
Schwab’s own market note called this pattern a “debasement trade” returning. Sonders agreed, tying it to fading confidence in the dollar and Treasury policy. The trade points capital toward scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Nvidia’s results land today, and commentary from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium is still ahead this week. Traders face two signals to reconcile.
One is whether concentrated AI earnings can keep justifying record index weights. The other is whether Bitcoin’s break above $80,000 marks a lasting rotation into hedges, or just a short squeeze.
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