According to Chainalysis, following the February 28, 2026, US-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian crypto exchanges saw a sharp surge in outflows.
Between February 28 and March 2, 2026, exchanges saw roughly $10.3 million in cryptoasset outflows.
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Why it matters:
- The spike reflects previous trends, in which crypto trading volumes and on-chain activity in Iran typically increase during major geopolitical events and domestic unrest.
- Previously, Chainalysis suggested that cryptocurrency has become an “element of resistance” for many Iranians.
The details:
- Chainalysis recorded hourly outflows approaching or exceeding $2 million after the February 28 airstrikes.
- Furthermore, the blockchain analytics firm Elliptic noted that Iran’s largest crypto exchange, Nobitex, saw a 700% increase in outgoing transaction volumes.
- The recent outflows originated from several of Iran’s largest exchanges. They included transfers ranging from small amounts to those exceeding $1 million, suggesting a mix of participant types.
- Funds flowed to overseas mainstream exchanges, domestic Iranian exchanges, and unidentified “other wallets.”
- One plausible explanation is retail users moving funds off centralized exchanges into self-custodial wallets as a hedge against instability and potential restrictions.
- Another explanation is exchange-level liquidity reshuffling to obscure wallet identification and mitigate sanctions exposure.
- Lastly, a third possibility is state-aligned actors leveraging domestic exchanges to evade sanctions, conduct cross-border transactions, or launder funds during heightened geopolitical tension.
The big picture:
- Iran’s crypto market grew sharply in 2025 compared with the year before, reaching $7.78 billion.
- Tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have continued to rise over the past few days.
